The future of the State Pension triple lock has returned to the spotlight after former Conservative pensions minister Lord David Willetts argued that the policy has shifted welfare spending towards pensioners at the expense of families with children. Speaking on BBC Radio 4's Today Debate, Lord Willetts, now president of the Resolution Foundation, said pensioners have gained around £900 above inflation since the guarantee was introduced in 2010, while benefits for households with children have fallen by about £1,400 in real terms.

Lord Willetts, who served as pensions minister in the coalition government, said the balance of welfare spending has changed significantly over the past 15 years. "Of course, there are still poor pensioners. However, if you look at the poorest 10% of families, they are on lower incomes than the poorest 10% of pensioners," he said. He argued that the traditional image of pensioners as the group most at risk of poverty no longer holds. "In the old days, it was absolutely the case. Old people were poor, and poor people were old," he said, but added that child and family poverty is now a more pressing warning sign.

"What we've been doing for the past 15 years is focusing an inevitably limited benefit budget on pensioners, and the losers, unfortunately, have been families with children," Lord Willetts said. He called for the triple lock to be scrapped and for the system to be rebalanced to support younger people, suggesting that the government should address both pensioner and family needs simultaneously.

Webb defends the triple lock

His intervention was challenged by Sir Steve Webb, a former Liberal Democrat pensions minister who served in the coalition era and is now a partner at pensions consultancy LCP. Sir Steve defended the triple lock, rejecting the idea that the UK cannot sustain decent state pensions. He said Britain spends a smaller proportion of national income on pensions and pensioner benefits than other developed countries. "That's a choice," he said. "We can afford a decent state pension. We have chosen to prioritise other things."

Sir Steve also warned that workplace and private pension provision is not delivering enough stability for many people, meaning the State Pension remains crucial. "One leg is falling over. The private pension bit is falling over at the moment. That's why we need a firm leg," he said. He emphasised that before the triple lock was introduced, the value of the state pension had been falling relative to earnings over three decades, and that pensions need to be linked to incomes to prevent retirees from experiencing a sharp drop in living standards.

The debate comes amid rising concerns about the cost of the policy. According to figures cited in the BBC Radio 4 debate, the State Pension alone is forecast to cost about £146 billion in 2026/27, with total spending on pensioner benefits put at around £169 billion. The Guardian reported that the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates the state pension bill will reach £154 billion this year, £16 billion higher than it would have been without the triple lock, and that keeping the policy could cost about £20 billion a year by 2050. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said the triple lock has cost around three times more than initially expected.

Broader calls for reform

Lord Willetts is not the only figure calling for change. The British Chambers of Commerce has urged the government to scrap the triple lock and redirect the savings towards tackling the youth unemployment crisis. The Resolution Foundation, which Lord Willetts now leads, has previously branded the triple lock "a terrible policy" in its analysis. These calls come as the government is required by law to increase the state pension in line with wage growth, but not necessarily under the triple lock formula.

Supporters of the triple lock, however, argue that it is vital for maintaining the value of the state pension, especially for future pensioners. Sir Steve Webb's defence reflects that view, as does the stance of Age UK, which the Guardian noted has said the policy has "rebuilt the value of the state pension" and improved living standards for some of the poorest pensioners.

Not a simple generational fight

Gail Cartmail, a former president of the Trades Union Congress, urged caution against framing the debate as a straightforward conflict between generations. She pointed out that many older people play a significant role in unpaid care, often supporting younger family members, which complicates any simple division between the interests of pensioners and those of families with children.

The triple lock, introduced in 2010 by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition, guarantees that the State Pension will rise each year by the highest of inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5%. This mechanism has been credited with increasing the State Pension's value relative to prices and earnings, but it has also been blamed for driving up welfare costs. The debate is expected to continue as the government prepares its next budget, with speculation that the chancellor could address the policy's future.