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Hernandez vs. Rodrigues UFC Fight Night 285 odds, picks and predictions
Gregory Rodrigues defeated Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision in the main event of UFC Fight Night 285 in Sacramento, but the win was overshadowed by controversy over the judges' scorecards. While Rodrigues dominated with leg kicks and takedown defense, some rounds were scored in Hernandez's favor, drawing criticism from fans and an MMA journalist.
Rodrigues outpoints Hernandez in UFC Sacramento main event
Gregory Rodrigues defeated Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision in the main event of UFC Fight Night 285 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California, on Saturday. The five-round middleweight bout went the full 25-minute distance, with all three judges scoring in favor of Rodrigues (49-46, 48-47, 48-47).
Hernandez entered the fight ranked No. 6 in the middleweight division, while Rodrigues sat at No. 11. Rodrigues's victory was described as the most impressive of his career by Essentially Sports.
The fight marked the UFC's return to Sacramento after seven years, and the card was filled with dramatic finishes, according to Essentially Sports. But the main event was a grinding affair that showcased Rodrigues's improved takedown defense and precise leg kicks.
A tale of two fighters
Hernandez initiated grappling early, pressing Rodrigues against the cage. Rodrigues defended well but couldn't escape initially. After three minutes, Rodrigues broke free and landed punches to Hernandez's head. Hernandez kept clinching, and Rodrigues sported a small cut near his eyebrow.
In the second round, Rodrigues began chopping Hernandez's legs, causing Hernandez to fall multiple times. Rodrigues went for ground-and-pound but couldn't finish. Hernandez ended the round strong with a combination and a takedown.
Hernandez came out aggressively in the third round, taking Rodrigues's back and keeping the pressure on. Rodrigues, who was told between rounds to stop being hesitant, was largely on the defensive.
Rodrigues regained momentum in the fourth round, attacking with kicks and punches. Hernandez continued to look for takedowns but was repeatedly stuffed.
One report noted that Hernandez landed just 3 of 28 takedown attempts, while Rodrigues scored three knockdowns, primarily via leg kicks.
Scoring controversy
The judges' scorecards read 49-46, 48-47, and 48-47 in favor of Rodrigues. According to Essentially Sports, two judges — Ron McCarthy and Chris Leben — gave Hernandez the third round, while the third judge, Derek Cleary, awarded Hernandez the fifth round. That fifth-round score drew criticism from fans and experts.
MMA journalist Adam Marin posted on X: "Two judges had it 48-47 Robocop, one had it 49-46. I don't get the 48-47 cards. What two rounds did Fluffy win? He only won the third round."
Fans echoed the sentiment, with comments like "cut these judges" and "How did the judges give fluffy two rounds lol . I had that 49-46 easy." Some fans also praised the fight itself, with one writing, "I would assume that wins FOTN. That was a WAR."
Background and records
Hernandez entered the fight with a 15-3-0 record. He was coming off a third-round KO/TKO loss to Sean Strickland on Feb. 21, which ended an eight-bout win streak that included a submission win over Roman Dolidze on Aug. 9, 2025. Hernandez had just one decision win in his previous seven fights, against Brendan Allen on Feb. 22, 2025.
Rodrigues, with a 19-6-0 record, had won three straight fights since a fourth-round KO/TKO loss to Jared Cannonier on Feb. 15, 2025. His most recent bout was a first-round KO/TKO win over Brunno Ferreira at UFC 326 on March 7.
Statistically, Hernandez held advantages in significant strike accuracy (65.88% to 53.28%), takedown average (5.88 to 1.90), takedown accuracy (48.21% to 34.88%), and submission average (1.63 to 0.38). Rodrigues had the edge in significant strikes landed per minute (5.53 to 4.57). Both fighters had a 75-inch reach.
Other results
Elsewhere on the card, Reinier de Ridder moved up to light-heavyweight and defeated Roman Dolidze via TKO in round one. Anthony Wint won his UFC debut via technical submission over Terrance Chatman, and Stan Dorsainvil remained unbeaten, defeating Gauge Young by unanimous decision. Other results included Vitor Petrino over Serghei Spivac and MarQuel Mederos over Mason Jones.
How each outlet told it
Essentially Sports
Framing: Headline emphasizes the scoring controversy and overshadows the main event result, framing the fight as marred by judging issues. — Critical and sensational, e.g., 'fans collectively revolt against the judges' and 'accused them of robbing Gregory Rodrigues of a fifth-round win.'
Facts Included:
Gregory Rodrigues defeated No.7-ranked Anthony Hernandez at UFC Sacramento
Scoring controversy overshadowed the win
UFC returned to Sacramento after seven years
Most fights ended via brutal finishes
Hernandez landed just 3 of 28 takedown attempts
Rodrigues scored three knockdowns, mostly via leg kicks
Scorecards: 48-47, 49-46, 48-47
Judges Ron McCarthy and Chris Leben gave round 3 to Hernandez; Derek Cleary gave round 5 to Hernandez
MMA journalist Adam Marin's tweet: "Two judges had it 48-47 Robocop, one had it 49-46. I don’t get the 48-47 cards. What two rounds did Fluffy win? He only won the third round."
Fans called out judges with quotes like "cut these judges" and "How did the judges give fluffy two rounds lol . I had that 49-46 easy"
Fan comment: "I would assume that wins FOTN. That was a WAR."
Rodrigues' victory was his most impressive career win
Framing: Headline focuses on odds, picks, and predictions, framing the event as a betting opportunity rather than a sporting event. — Analytical and betting-oriented, e.g., 'Hernandez is looking to rebound' and 'that appears to be an unlikely result.'
Facts Included:
Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 285 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Fight is a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event
Prelims at 5 p.m. ET, main card 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+
Records: Hernandez (15-3-0) | Rodrigues (19-6-0)
Hernandez's last fight: Round 3 KO/TKO loss to Sean Strickland on Feb. 21
Hernandez had an 8-bout win streak, including submission win over Roman Dolidze on Aug. 9, 2025
Hernandez has 1 decision win in past 7 fights (vs. Brendan Allen Feb. 22, 2025)
Rodrigues' last fight: KO/TKO win over Brunno Ferreira in Round 1 at UFC 326 on March 7
Rodrigues had 3 straight victories since loss to Jared Cannonier on Feb. 15, 2025
Both fighters have 75-inch reach
Rodrigues has significant strikes landed per minute advantage 5.53 to 4.57
Hernandez has higher significant strike accuracy 65.88% vs 53.28%
Hernandez has takedown average advantage 5.88 to 1.90
Hernandez has takedown accuracy 48.21% vs 34.88%
Hernandez has submission average advantage 1.63 to 0.38
Odds: Hernandez -200, Rodrigues +165
Over/Under total rounds 2.5
Prediction: HERNANDEZ BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-125)
Over 2.5 rounds (-110) is a play
Hernandez has gone distance once in past 7 fights, fought into round 3 in each of past 4 outings
Rodrigues has pair of Round 1 wins in past 3 fights, hasn't fought out of Round 1 in 4 of past 8 outings
Framing: Headline emphasizes the hard-fought nature and that it was a headliner, suggesting a competitive main event, but omits any scoring controversy. — Dramatic and engaged, e.g., 'Hernandez Came Back Out Of Nowhere' and 'a very grueling fight.'
Facts Included:
Gregory Rodrigues won unanimous decision over Anthony Hernandez at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento
Fight was the main event of UFC Sacramento
Hernandez ranked No. 6, Rodrigues No. 11 in middleweight
Framing: Headline emphasizes the result (Rodrigues wins by UD) without noting the fight was a main event or that it went the distance, leaving out the competitive nature and ranking context. — Factual and neutral, e.g., 'The Brazilian's work proved sufficient to sweep the cards.'
Facts Included:
Gregory Rodrigues beat Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision at UFC Sacramento
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimGregory Rodrigues defeated Anthony Hernandez by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 285 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
ClaimThe fight was a five-round middleweight bout and served as the main event of UFC Fight Night 285, also known as UFC Sacramento, held at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.
ClaimCorrected: There was a scoring controversy because judge Derek Cleary scored the fifth round in favor of Hernandez, which fans and experts disagreed with.