Weather Forecast and Yellow Alert

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted heavy rain in a few parts of Punjab and Haryana from September 1 to 5, for which a yellow alert has been issued. According to a bulletin released on August 31, fairly widespread rainfall is expected over both states from September 3 to 5, following a week of relatively low monsoon activity.

The north-eastern and south-eastern parts of Punjab and the eastern belt of Haryana are likely to receive more rain than other areas during this period. The IMD described the monsoon activity over Punjab and Haryana as "weak" during the past 24 hours, with light to moderate rain occurring at some places and heavy rain reported at isolated locations. Day and night temperatures in both states also remained above normal.

Monsoon Deficits in Punjab and Haryana

According to data reported by The Tribune, Punjab received 94.5 mm of rain from August 1 to the morning of August 31, against the long-period average (LPA) of 146.2 mm — a deficit of 35 per cent. Monthly rainfall remained below the LPA in all districts of Punjab except Gurdaspur, where it was 24 per cent above normal. The deficiency ranged up to 84 per cent, with Tarn Taran, Kapurthala, Mohali and Jalandhar among the worst-affected districts.

In Haryana, monsoon rainfall during August was six per cent below the LPA, with the state receiving 138.8 mm against the LPA of 147.7 mm. Rainfall was below the LPA in 11 districts, with Karnal, Jind and Kaithal being the worst affected.

The IMD said a western disturbance persists over north Pakistan and the adjoining Jammu region at 5.8 km above mean sea level, while the monsoon trough currently passes through Amritsar, Patiala and Najibabad. Under the influence of these systems, the IMD has also predicted fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh till September 2, and over Himachal Pradesh till September 4.

Himachal Pradesh: Active Monsoon and Infrastructure Impact

In Himachal Pradesh, the monsoon is expected to remain active till September 3, with isolated heavy rainfall forecast in several districts, according to ANI. Senior scientist at the IMD, Himachal Pradesh, Sandeep Kumar Sharma, said light to moderate rainfall was recorded across parts of the state during the past 24 hours, with isolated heavy spells in Kangra, Mandi and Sirmaur. The highest rainfall during the period was recorded at Malgaon in Kangra district and Joginder Nagar in Mandi district, each receiving around 17 mm. Shimla city received around 6 mm of rainfall.

Sharma said that from August 31 to September 4, light to moderate rainfall is likely to continue over several districts, particularly the mid-hill areas, with isolated heavy rainfall also possible. On August 31, isolated heavy rainfall was expected in Kangra, Mandi and Sirmaur. On September 1, rainfall activity was expected to intensify, leading to a yellow warning for heavy rainfall in Chamba, Kangra, Mandi, Shimla, Bilaspur, Solan and Sirmaur. On September 2, isolated heavy rainfall is forecast over Kangra, Shimla, Solan and Sirmaur, while on September 3, the intensity is likely to decrease, with heavy rainfall possible mainly over Kangra and Sirmaur. Light rainfall could continue on September 4, though the possibility of significant rainfall is relatively low, and rainfall on September 5 and 6 is likely to remain confined to a few areas.

"Overall, the monsoon will remain active across Himachal Pradesh from August 31 to September 3," Sharma said.

Meanwhile, 98 roads remained blocked and 107 distribution transformer regions were disrupted across the state, officials said. According to ANI, Mandi accounted for 89 of the 107 disrupted transformer regions, and 37 water supply schemes were disrupted, all in Hamirpur district. Authorities warned of possible landslides, waterlogging in low-lying areas, rising water levels and slippery roads.

Sharma also provided details of the seasonal rainfall in Himachal Pradesh. The state received around 10 per cent less rainfall than normal from June 1 to August 31. Lahaul and Spiti recorded about 60 per cent below-normal rainfall, while Kullu and Shimla received around 14 per cent more rainfall than normal. Temperatures in several pockets were around 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal during the past 24 hours, with Bunthar and Kalpa stations recording around 4 degrees Celsius above normal. Shimla temperatures are likely to remain between 22 and 24 degrees Celsius, while lower and mid-hill areas, including Kangra and Mandi, could see temperatures around 32 degrees Celsius.

As rainfall activity remains strong, water levels in major rivers and local streams may rise, and the general public has been advised not to go near rivers, streams and other water bodies.

Outlook

With the yellow alert in place and monsoon activity expected to persist, authorities across Punjab, Haryana and Himachal Pradesh remain on alert. The IMD's forecasts indicate that while heavy rain may continue in isolated areas over the next few days, the intensity is likely to decrease from September 3 onwards, with rainfall becoming more confined by September 5 and 6. The below-normal monsoon rainfall in Punjab and Haryana, in contrast with the active monsoon in Himachal Pradesh, highlights the uneven distribution of the season's rains across the region.