Heavy rain forecast across India as weather systems converge

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall across several parts of India starting August 22, driven by two converging weather systems: an active system over northeast Madhya Pradesh and a low-pressure area forming off the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast. The monsoon trough, which stretches from Amritsar down to the Bay of Bengal, is dragging intense moisture across multiple regions, according to Business Today.

Central and eastern states are expected to bear the brunt of the downpour. Isolated places in Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha are on alert for exceptionally heavy downpours, while northeastern states including Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland are expected to receive torrential rain, as reported by Business Today.

State-wise forecast and travel implications

For Sunday, August 23, the IMD has predicted heavy rainfall at isolated places across several parts of India. Uttarakhand, central India, the Northeast, and parts of eastern and southern India are likely to witness heavy showers. Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds are expected in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, with strong surface winds likely in some areas, according to the Economic Times.

In Delhi, the IMD expects generally cloudy skies with light rain in the morning and a possibility of moderate rain at night. The IMD's Delhi forecast indicates that the city could see scattered spells, with isolated heavy downpours in Delhi-NCR, as per Business Today and India Today. Localised waterlogging is expected on low-lying stretches such as the Delhi-Meerut Expressway, NH-9 underpasses, Indirapuram, and Sahibabad, and authorities advise commuters to monitor traffic advisories and avoid low-lying intersections during peak downpours.

Himachal Pradesh is likely to see partly cloudy weather with spells of rain in the afternoon, but the latest weather bulletin indicates no heavy-rain warning for August 23, after a warning for isolated areas the previous day. Uttarakhand, however, is expected to witness heavy rain in places in Dehradun, Tehri, Pithoragarh, Nainital, Udham Singh Nagar, Pauri, and Bageshwar districts, with isolated thunderstorms and very intense rain spells possible across all districts, according to a forecast from the Economic Times.

Bihar is expected to have partly cloudy conditions with brief rain showers and high temperatures around 36°C, while Gujarat is expected to see partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions with no weather warning currently. Jammu & Kashmir will likely have sunny periods with isolated afternoon thunderstorms, the Economic Times reports.

Odisha on alert despite easing floods

In Odisha, the flood situation shows signs of easing, but the respite could be short-lived with heavy to very heavy rain forecast in parts of the state over the coming days, according to The New Indian Express. The IMD has forecast formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal on Sunday, which will bring more rain to Odisha over the next six days. Many parts of the state may receive light to moderate rainfall or thundershower activity, with isolated places in northern and western districts likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall (64.5 to 204.4 mm).

Director of the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, Manorama Mohanty, said that one or two places in Keonjhar, Mayurbhanj, Kalahandi, Rayagada, and Koraput are likely to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on Sunday, and a few districts may see similar weather on Monday.

Squally weather with wind speeds of 35-45 kmph gusting up to 55 kmph may prevail along and off the Odisha coast for the next two days, and fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea during this period. The low-pressure area is also expected to trigger heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places in Chhatisgarh over the next 2-3 days.

Even as close to one million people have been affected by floods across six districts, the Special Relief Commissioner Rajesh Prabhakar Patil said the situation is under control, but all district administrations have been told to remain alert in light of the forecast of rain or thundershowers in 19 districts. As of Saturday, water levels of major rivers including Mahanadi, Brahmani, Baitarani, Budhabalanga, Subarnarekha, and Jalaka were flowing below the danger mark, according to the reports.

Wider country: rainfall spread and deficits

IMD's forecast, obtained prior to the current alerts, had already indicated sustained wet conditions across several regions. From around August 18, the weather was expected to be affected by a depression over Jharkhand that gradually moved west-northwestwards, bringing heavy to very heavy rain to Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, East Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, and West Uttar Pradesh, as reported by The Times of India. The forecast covered significant rainfall in the western Himalayan regions, East Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Northeast, as well as western Bengal and certain coastal southern areas.

The IMD has warned of thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds in parts of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat over the coming days.

nationally, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall remained 14% below normal as of August 22, according to IMD data quoted by India Today, while Business Today reported a 12% deficit for the June-mid-August period, citing June's severe 40% shortfall in the East.

Impact on travellers

IMDThe weather department has advised people in areas likely to experience very heavy rainfall to remain alert, warning of possible waterlogging, inundation, flooding in low-lying areas, localised landslides, mudslides, reduced visibility, and disruptions to road and rail traffic. In particular, tourism and recreational activities may need such areas to be regulated, as reported by The Times of India. Commuters are advised to check travel advisories and avoid low-lying routes.