Heatwave conditions expected across Pakistan from May 7-11: PMD

Lead

The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast heatwave conditions across Pakistan from May 7 to 11, with daytime temperatures expected to rise to 46-50°C in several districts. The warning comes as Karachi recorded its highest temperature since 2018, with the mercury touching 44.1°C on Monday, and at least 10 deaths were reported across the city due to intense heat, according to officials and charity organizations.

Coverage Comparison

The reporting from Dawn covers multiple facets of the developing situation, from the immediate human toll in Karachi to the government’s preparedness measures and meteorological forecasts. While the reports agree on the PMD’s core forecast of a heatwave starting in southern and central areas from May 7, they differ in emphasis: some articles focus on the public health implications, others on the administrative response, and a few on the broader climate context, including the possibility of El Niño conditions.

Key Claims

Heatwave Forecast

The PMD issued a press release stating that due to high pressure in the upper atmosphere, heatwave conditions are likely to develop over southern and central parts of the country from May 7-11, and in upper parts from May 8-10. The department predicted daytime maximum temperatures of 46-50°C in cities including Dadu, Shaheed Benazir Abad, Ghotki, Khairpur, Naushahro Feroze, Jacobabad, Larkana, Sukkur, Sibi, Turbat, and Panjgur.

Temperatures of 43-47°C were forecast for Dera Ghazi Khan, Layyah, Bhakkar, Rajanpur, Kot Addu, Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar, Rahim Yar Khan, Multan, Khanewal, Pakpattan, Sahiwal, Karak, Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Tank, and Dera Ismail Khan. Upper regions, including Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi, Nowshera, Kohat, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, and Lahore, may see 39-43°C.

Karachi is expected to remain very hot, with maximum temperatures between 35°C and 38°C during the forecast period. The PMD also noted that a shallow westerly wave is likely to affect the upper parts of the country from the evening of May 10, possibly persisting until May 13, which could bring relief from the hot conditions.

Karachi Heatwave and Casualties

Karachi recorded its hottest day of the year, with temperatures reaching 44.1°C — the highest since 2018, according to the PMD. The Edhi Foundation and Chhipa Welfare Association reported that at least 10 people died across the city on Monday because of the “extreme heatwave.” Most victims were unidentified and appeared to be drug users; their bodies were found in areas including Manghopir, Gulshan-i-Hadeed, Defence Phase-VIII, Boat Basin, Liaquatabad, Superhighway, Surjani Town, Mauripur Road, Baldia Town, and North Karachi.

However, Police Surgeon Dr. Summaiya Syed told Dawn that no bodies were received in the medico-legal sections of the three government hospitals for autopsy. Seven of the deceased persons remained unidentified until late Monday night.

Prolonged power outages and water shortages added to public distress, with residents already facing ruptured pipelines and excessive load-shedding by K-Electric. Students sitting for intermediate and O/A Level examinations also struggled with the harsh weather and frequent power breakdowns at examination centres.

Government Response

The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued sweeping emergency protocols on Monday and placed hospitals on alert, as extreme summer temperatures threatened millions. The NDMA’s Early Warning Team anticipated that daytime temperatures from May through June would remain above normal. Guidelines ask provincial and local administrations, health and line departments, rescue agencies, the armed forces, and federal ministries to implement preventive measures.

The NDMA directed provincial and district disaster management authorities to launch public awareness campaigns highlighting the dangers of heatwaves. It also mandated the identification of high-risk areas, the establishment of heatstroke treatment centres equipped with medical staff and supplies, and urged the Ministry of National Health Services to enhance hospital capacities.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) directed all deputy commissioners to take precautionary measures ahead of heatwave conditions expected from May 8. In its letter, the PDMA predicted daytime temperatures of 43-47°C in Dera Ismail Khan, Tank, Bannu, Karak, and Lakki Marwat, and 39-43°C in Peshawar, Nowshera, Charsadda, Mardan, Swabi, Haripur, and Kohat. It also requested authorities to establish heatstroke centres, cooling points, and mobile cooling stations at high-traffic areas, and to ensure awareness among senior citizens and children.

Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah expressed regret over the loss of lives in Karachi and directed the city administration to identify the deceased and trace their heirs. He urged citizens not to leave their homes unnecessarily and to adopt precautionary measures. Earlier, the chief minister had advised the public to remain safe as the PMD forecast heatwave conditions in the province’s central and upper parts, and instructed district administrations to set up heatwave relief camps and make special arrangements in hospitals for heatstroke patients.

Health Advisories

The PMD advised the public, especially children, women, and senior citizens, to avoid unnecessary exposure to direct sunlight and to remain hydrated. Farmers were advised to manage crop activities and take care of livestock.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) says heat extremes can worsen health risks from chronic conditions such as cardiovascular, mental, respiratory, and diabetes-related conditions, and can cause acute kidney injury. WHO guidelines recommend avoiding outdoor strenuous activity during the hottest time of day, staying in the shade, spending two to three hours in a cool place, wearing light and loose-fitting clothing, and drinking at least two to three litres of water per day.

Additional Forecasts and Context

In a separate forecast, the PMD predicted mild heatwave conditions in southern parts of the country from April 29 to May 3. The department also stated that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge during May-July, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and can alter weather patterns globally. The PMD identified south Punjab, upper Sindh, and southern and eastern Balochistan as heat-prone areas, where temperatures sometimes shoot up to 52°C.

The PMD also forecast rain in the upper regions from Sunday evening to May 12, with dust storms, thunderstorms, and rain likely in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab, Islamabad, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir. Landslide warnings were issued for vulnerable areas. The westerly wave is expected to bring relief from the hot conditions in the upper parts, while very hot weather continues in the south.