Heathrow Third Runway: Official Analysis Cites Health Risks and Questionable Economic Gains
The UK government has moved forward with the next phase of its Heathrow expansion plan, despite newly released official analysis warning of major health impacts on nearby populations and projecting far lower economic benefits than previously claimed.
A report prepared for the Department for Transport (DfT) found that construction of a third runway could have “major adverse” effects on the health and wellbeing of up to 3 million people living nearby, according to The Guardian. The analysis, produced by consultants Aecom, said the expansion would worsen noise and air quality and could harm access to housing, education, healthcare, open space, and transport. It also flagged impacts on water quality, community identity and cohesion, landscapes and townscapes, and climate change mitigation and adaptation.
The same report acknowledged potential benefits for jobs, income, education, skills, and training, but concluded that adverse effects on environmental and social determinants were likely and “many of these have potential to be significant.” The document is expected to help shape mitigation measures, though it states the impacts cannot be fully offset.
Separately, DfT documents indicate the economic case for the runway is weaker than previously stated. The Guardian reports that the scheme could boost GDP by up to only 0.05% in 2056—roughly 90% less than the 0.5% figure previously cited. The DfT calculates the net present value of the project, even if entirely privately financed, to be between -£23.4bn and -£62.5bn. This figure includes £29bn-£42.4bn in positive benefits to passengers (primarily lower air fares) and wider economic benefits, but those are outweighed by social and environmental costs estimated at £58bn-£82bn. Profits at airlines and other airports are expected to fall by about £25bn.
The government, however, is pressing ahead. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said the consultation is “a positive step towards realising the benefits of a third runway” and that the government is “determined to move quickly and responsibly.” Chancellor Rachel Reeves has championed rapid expansion in the name of economic growth, which she described as “this government’s top priority.”
Heathrow has said the new figures do not capture all the economic benefits, while a government spokesperson said they are “only part of the picture.”
Economist Alex Chapman, head of economic policy at the New Economics Foundation, described the figures as “historically bad” and said they put the arguments for a third runway in fresh doubt.
The DfT was approached for comment by The Guardian. The disclosure came as the government accelerated publication of a draft national policy statement backing the third runway, setting the stage for the next stage of the legislative process.