Hastie warns Liberals 'fighting for our lives' as One Nation claims historic WA by-election win

One Nation's Historic Win

One Nation has achieved a historic victory in Western Australia, winning its first lower house seat in the state in the Secret Harbour by-election. The ABC's chief elections and data analyst Casey Briggs called the seat for One Nation's Luke Herdegen a little over four hours after votes began to be counted on Saturday.

Mr Herdegen, who will become the next MLA for Secret Harbour, said his victory sent a loud message. "There are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country anymore," he said. "The people have spoken today. A message that will send shock waves across the entire country ... and put every MP in this entire country on notice. None of these MPs are safe from the orange tsunami."

One Nation's WA leader Rod Caddies claimed victory at 9:30pm local time, although Labor had yet to concede at that point. He said Australia's two-party political system was "dead" and described the result as something "they said was impossible." "Labor owned this part of Perth," he said.

The seat had been held by Labor's Paul Papalia on an 5 per cent margin, and the area had been in Labor's hands in different forms since 1989. Labor's candidate in the by-election was Georgia Tree, a former political staffer and Woodside lobbyist.

WA Labor Premier Roger Cook had repeatedly described the by-election as a "fight for our lives" given the threat posed by One Nation. The large swing in Labor heartland will be watched closely around the country, both as an indication of support for One Nation and as a lesson in how to campaign against it.

A Community's Frustration

In the lead-up to the poll, ABC reporters spoke with voters in the beachside suburb south of Perth, where cost of living and housing were key concerns. Voter Fabian Portese said, "I did vote for Labor in the past, but I feel really let down by them. I hope they change and start to listen to the community a bit more." Another voter, Elaine Soltluisch, said she had lived in the area for 30 years and had seen no change, adding, "Labor is not for the general public, I don't think they're helping." Denominations at a local hairdresser in Golden Bay also voiced frustration with Labor.

The by-election was the clearest indication yet of a shift in the political landscape, coming after One Nation's success in the east and as the party aimed to turn frustration with major parties into seats, according to ABC analysis. Professor John Phillimore, director of the John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, described the contest as a critical test for One Nation leading into the state election.

Hastie's Warning to the Liberals

Before the vote, federal Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie warned that the Liberal Party was in "the fight of its life" against One Nation. The by-election, triggered by Mr Papalia's resignation, was set as One Nation's first test in Western Australia after Pauline Hanson confirmed in June the party would target Labor communities.

Mr Hastie, whose federal electorate of Canning overlaps Secret Harbour, said the party needed to fight for every vote. "We had swings towards us in the state election last year, and I had double-digit swings in the federal election," he said. "I even flipped Labor booths – longstanding historical Labor booths – last year. So there is a strong story for the Liberal Party, but we've just got to fight."

He also took issue with state Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas, who had described One Nation's rise as an opportunity. "I don't accept this idea that a win for One Nation is a win for the Liberal Party," Mr Hastie said. "We're fighting for our lives, and we should be fighting for every single vote in Secret Harbour." He said he did not see "eye-to-eye on the political strategy" with Mr Zempilas.

Mr Hastie has been targeted by senior One Nation figures in a campaign described as one of "relentless personal attacks," and Home Affairs has since bolstered security at his home and electorate office.

Tensions on the Campaign Trail

On polling day, tensions were visible. Labor leader Roger Cook accused Mr Zempilas of throwing Mr Hastie "under the bus." "Basil Zempilas knows that currently the only way he can be in government is as a minor party coalition partner to One Nation," Mr Cook told The West Australian.

At a polling booth in Port Kennedy, Mr Zempilas directed questions to state director Simon Morgan, who said he did not know where Mr Hastie was. "I don't know, ask him," he said. Pressed on whether the senior federal MP should have been present, Mr Morgan replied: "Why?" Mr Hastie declined to comment.

Previously, Mr Hastie had accused Mr Zempilas of failing to fight for every vote, saying, "The lesson from the 2021 state election is you don't wave the white flag."