Hamas's Yahya Sinwar welcomed apocalyptic nuclear war if it meant destroying Israel - analysis

Lead

Newly released Hamas documents have shed light on the mindset of Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 attacks, revealing that he anticipated a devastating Israeli response—possibly including nuclear weapons—yet proceeded with his plans. The documents, published by the Amit Terrorism and Intelligence Research Institute and reported by The Jerusalem Post, also expose a false promise by Hezbollah to join the attack and detail years of coordination between Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Coverage Comparison

The Jerusalem Post has provided the most detailed coverage of these documents, with multiple reports examining different aspects of the revelations. One report focuses on the coordination between Hamas and Hezbollah, while another analyzes Sinwar's nuclear fears and his willingness to risk the destruction of Gaza. A third piece offers a broader analysis of Sinwar's ideology, comparing him to Osama bin Laden.

While all reports draw on the same set of documents, they emphasize different facets of the story. The first report, by Herb Keinon, highlights the implications of Sinwar's thinking for understanding Hamas's motivations. The second, by the Jerusalem Post staff, details the operational coordination between the groups. The third, by Yonah Jeremy Bob, provides the most extensive quotes from Sinwar's handwritten document.

Key Claims

According to the documents released by Army Radio and reported by The Jerusalem Post, Hamas had been coordinating with Hezbollah for years before the October 7 attack. In 2019, Hamas began accelerating what it called "the plan to defeat the Gaza Division." The documents include a letter from Ismail Haniyeh, then head of Hamas's political bureau, to Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah, expressing confidence that Hezbollah would not disappoint "their brothers and family in Palestine."

However, the documents also reveal that Hezbollah made a false promise to join the attack on October 7. The Jerusalem Post reports that Hezbollah backed out due to fear of Israel's retaliation. This detail, previously reported by the Post, is now corroborated by the released documents.

Joint planning with Iran is also detailed, with references to a joint intelligence war room in Beirut during Operation Guardian of the Walls in 2021, involving Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The central revelation concerns Sinwar's handwritten document, dated August 24, 2022—13 months before the attack. In it, Sinwar anticipated a powerful Israeli response to an invasion, writing: "The enemy will not hesitate to use all the means and weapons at its disposal, not only through attack but also by other means. It may even use a nuclear bomb."

Despite this grim forecast, Sinwar did not abandon his plans. According to the documents, he emphasized that the battle would be a "battle of life or death," even if it meant the destruction of the Gaza Strip. The Jerusalem Post's analysis characterizes this as an apocalyptic, messianic ideology, comparing Sinwar's willingness to risk self-destruction to the Cold War concept of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), but with a key difference: Sinwar was not a rational actor seeking survival but someone who valued Israel's destruction over his own survival.

The documents also reveal Hamas's plan to deceive Israel into complacency before the surprise attack, with an invasion force of up to 10,000 fighters. This deception was part of a broader strategy to achieve surprise during the October 7 assault.

Perspectives

The Jerusalem Post's coverage reflects an Israeli security perspective, emphasizing the threat posed by Hamas and Hezbollah's ideologies and the perceived failure of Israeli intelligence to understand them. The reports do not include perspectives from Hamas, Hezbollah, or Iranian sources, as the documents are from captured internal communications.

The analysis by Herb Keinon draws a stark conclusion: "Evil, according to one definition, is someone who believes that his salvation can only come from your destruction. Sinwar took that one step further: Israel’s destruction was so important that he was willing to risk his own demise to bring it about." This framing underscores the editorial stance of the Jerusalem Post, which is known for its center-right, Israel-centric coverage.

No alternative viewpoints from the parties involved are presented in the available material.