Hague Tribunal Orders India to Uphold Indus Waters Treaty, Restricts Hydro Project
The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague ruled on Monday that India must uphold the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan and temporarily restrict construction on a hydroelectric project in the Kashmir region. The tribunal found unanimously that none of the grounds cited by India justified suspending or terminating the 1960 treaty, which it declared "remains fully in force."
Pakistan welcomed the decision, while India rejected it, calling the tribunal "illegally constituted" and asserting that its pronouncements have no effect on India's sovereign decisions.
Background of the Dispute
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocates the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — to India, and the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — largely to Pakistan. The treaty has remained in force through three wars and other conflicts, but India placed it in abeyance in April 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people. India accused Pakistan of supporting the attackers; Pakistan denied any role and termed India's move an "act of war," arguing that the treaty has no provision for unilateral suspension.
Pakistan initiated arbitration proceedings in August 2016 over the design of India's Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects, which Pakistan argued did not comply with the treaty. After India suspended the agreement, Pakistan filed an application in March 2025 seeking interim measures and a determination of the treaty's status.
The Court's Ruling
The PCA, chaired by Professor Sean D. Murphy of the United States, issued an award on the status of the treaty and an order on Pakistan's application for interim measures. The court examined potential grounds for India's suspension, including India's public statements, and concluded that none justified suspension or termination. It noted that the treaty "does not provide for one party to terminate or suspend the operation of the treaty, or for 'abeyance'."
The court also found that India's arguments — including alleged terrorism by Pakistan and a lack of "cooperative spirit" — did not meet the high threshold for unilateral suspension under customary international law. The court identified only "few, highly restricted grounds" for such action, such as a material breach, fundamental change of circumstances, or armed conflict, and none applied here.
In its interim order, the PCA prohibited India from concreting the Ratle dam wall and power intake structure above specified levels until 90 days after a World Bank-appointed neutral expert issues a final decision, expected by July 2027. The court stated that India could continue other construction work but must comply with the treaty's design and operation restrictions.
Reaction from Pakistan
The Government of Pakistan expressed "utmost satisfaction" with the award, calling it a strategic consolidation of its treaty position. A Pakistani government spokesman said Islamabad "welcomed" the PCA order. Pakistan had argued that India's abeyance violated the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties and had sought to protect its water share, which is vital for agriculture — the treaty ensures water supply to 80 per cent of Pakistani farms.
India's Rejection
India's Ministry of External Affairs categorically rejected the award, stating that the "so-called Court" was constituted by the World Bank in "patent breach" of the treaty's terms. India said it has never recognised the tribunal's legal authority and has consistently refused to appear before it. The ministry asserted that the court has "no jurisdiction whatsoever to pronounce on India's sovereign decisions," and that its rulings "will have no effect on India's actions in connection with the projects being undertaken by India."
India reaffirmed that its decision to hold the treaty in abeyance remains in force, linking its suspension to Pakistan's alleged support for cross-border terrorism. India has maintained that it can suspend the treaty based on its sovereignty and has continued work on several hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir.
Looking Ahead
The dispute now moves to the neutral expert process under the World Bank, which will determine whether the design of the Ratle and Kishenganga plants complies with the treaty. The PCA noted that these projects are also the subject of proceedings before the neutral expert. The court's award and order will be made public after redactions, and the technical proceedings continue separately.