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IMF Projects Global Public Debt to Reach 100% of GDP by 2029, Revises Russia's Debt Forecast Downward

The IMF's new Fiscal Monitor forecasts global public debt hitting 100% of world GDP by 2029, up from 94% in 2025. Meanwhile, the Fund has revised Russia's public debt projections significantly lower, with debt expected at 1% of GDP this year and slower growth than previously estimated.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 distinct · 1 masthead · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Apr 15, 2026 Published Aug 13

Introduction

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest Fiscal Monitor report, projecting that global public debt will reach 100% of global GDP by 2029, according to TASS reporting on the report's presentation in Washington. The report also contains a notably revised forecast for Russia's public debt, with figures substantially lower than those presented in the IMF's previous October assessment.

Global Debt Trends

According to the IMF's Fiscal Monitor, gross public debt rose to 94% of global GDP in 2025 and is projected to reach the symbolic threshold of 100% by 2029. This projection, as reported by TASS, underscores the continued fiscal pressures facing economies worldwide.

The report also revisits a trend noted in the IMF's October analysis: while the number of countries with public debt exceeding 100% of their GDP is expected to decline over the next five years, the combined share of global GDP held by these highly indebted nations is projected to grow. This suggests that the heaviest debt burdens are concentrating among the world's largest economies.

Russia's Debt Outlook Revised Downward

In a separate section of the Fiscal Monitor, the IMF has downgraded its forecast for the growth of Russia's public debt through 2031. According to the report, Russia's public debt is projected to be 1% of GDP by the end of this year — one of the lowest figures among all countries covered in the report.

This marks a significant change from the IMF's previous estimates. In its October Fiscal Monitor, the Fund had projected Russia's public debt would reach 8% of GDP in 2026. The new report now indicates a slower growth trajectory: public debt is expected to reach 2% of GDP in 2027, 6% in 2028, 4% in 2029, 2% in 2030, and 1% in 2031. For comparison, the October report had predicted Russia's debt would climb to 8% of GDP by 2030.

These revised figures suggest that the IMF now views Russia's fiscal position as considerably stronger than previously assessed. The new projections imply a debt trajectory that peaks well below earlier estimates, even as global debt levels continue to rise.

Perspectives and Context

The IMF's Fiscal Monitor is a semi-annual publication that provides comprehensive analysis of global fiscal developments. The report is based on data available to the Fund's economists and reflects their latest assessments of economic conditions.

While TASS's reporting highlights the downward revision for Russia, the broader global picture remains one of rising debt. The projection that global public debt will reach 100% of GDP within four years is a stark indicator of the fiscal challenges facing advanced and emerging economies alike.

It is worth noting that the IMF's forecasts for Russia have been subject to significant uncertainty in recent years, given the evolving economic situation and the impact of sanctions and other external factors. The new figures represent the Fund's current best assessment, but they may be revised again in future updates.

Key Claims

Global public debt reached 94% of global GDP in 2025 and is projected to hit 100% by 2029, according to the IMF's Fiscal Monitor as reported by TASS.
Countries with debt above 100% of GDP: The IMF expects their number to decline over the next five years, but their share of global GDP to increase, per the October report referenced in the new Fiscal Monitor.
Russia's public debt for 2025 is projected at 1% of GDP, one of the lowest levels among countries in the report.
Russia's debt trajectory: The IMF now projects 2% of GDP in 2027, 6% in 2028, 4% in 2029, 2% in 2030, and 1% in 2031.
Revision from October: Previous estimates had Russia's debt at 8% of GDP in 2026 and 8% in 2030; the new report revises these figures downward.

Conclusion

The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor presents a mixed picture: while global public debt is set to cross the 100%-of-GDP mark within four years, Russia's debt trajectory has been revised to a slower growth path than previously anticipated. As with all economic forecasts, these figures are subject to change based on evolving conditions and new data.

This article is based on reporting by TASS on the IMF's Fiscal Monitor report presented in Washington on April 15. All figures and projections are as contained in that report.

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TASS — English · 2 articles

Framing: Russia's public debt forecast downgraded

as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

Facts Included:

IMF downgraded forecast for Russia's public debt growth through 2031
Russia's public debt projected to be 19.1% of GDP by the end of this year
Previous estimate was 24.8% of GDP in 2026
Projected public debt growth: 21.2% of GDP in 2027, 23.6% in 2028, 25.4% in 2029, 27.2% in 2030, 29.1% in 2031

Read the source article →

as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

Framing: Global public debt to reach 100% of GDP

Facts Included:

Global public debt projected to reach 100% of global GDP by 2029
Gross public debt rose to 94% of global GDP in 2025
Number of countries with public debt exceeding 100% of GDP expected to decline

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

AI-extracted; can misattribute a claim — see Methodology.

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status is Contested when two claims on this page negate each other; otherwise it counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded their forecast for growth rates of Russia’s public debt through 2031. Russia’s public debt is projected to be 19.1% of GDP by the end of this year.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC
ClaimRussia's public debt is expected to grow in the coming years, reaching 21.2% of GDP in 2027, 23.6% of GDP in 2028, 25.4% of GDP in 2029, 27.2% of GDP in 2030, and 29.1% of GDP in 2031.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via TASS — English as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC
ClaimThe previous estimate for Russia's public debt was 24.8% of GDP in 2026, and 32.8% of GDP in 2030.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via TASS — English as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC
ClaimGlobal public debt is projected to reach 100% of global GDP by 2029. Gross public debt rose to 94% of global GDP in 2025.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusContested via TASS — English as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC
ClaimThe number of countries with public debt exceeding 100% of their GDP is expected to decline within the next five years, though their share of global GDP is expected to grow.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Apr 15, 2026, 2:45 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 distinct · 1 masthead · 2 articles consulted: TASS — English 5 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-13