Global oil demand to grow by 19 million barrels per day by 2050 — OPEC

Lead

OPEC has released its World Oil Outlook, forecasting that global oil demand will increase by 19 million barrels per day by 2050, reaching 124.1 million barrels per day. The report, as covered by TASS, also projects significant growth in natural gas and renewable energy demand, while coal is the only major fuel expected to see a decline.

Regional Demand Trends

According to OPEC's outlook, the most significant increase in oil demand is expected in India, where consumption could rise by 8 million barrels per day by 2050. Other Asian countries, as well as nations in the Middle East and Africa, are also set to contribute to global demand growth, together with India accounting for a combined increase of 22.4 million barrels per day.

In contrast, the report projects a more modest rise in China's oil demand of 1.1 million barrels per day by 2050, with most of that growth expected before 2035 and a subsequent decline. Meanwhile, oil demand in OECD countries is forecast to fall by 7.9 million barrels per day over the same period.

Supply Outlook

OPEC's outlook also covers supply trends. OPEC+ countries are expected to increase oil production by nearly 14 million barrels per day, reaching 64.5 million barrels per day by 2050, and their share of the global market is projected to rise from 48% in 2025 to 52% by 2050. By 2030, OPEC+ supply could reach 55.3 million barrels per day, 4.7 million barrels per day more than current levels.

Non-OPEC+ countries are projected to add approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2030, bringing their output to 58.2 million barrels per day, and to maintain around 60 million barrels per day through the 2030s. The report highlights Canada and Argentina as notable exceptions, with their oil supply continuing to grow even after 2030.

Key Claims

OPEC's World Oil Outlook presents a detailed picture of future energy demand. The organization expects demand for all types of fuel, except coal, to grow through 2050, driven by strong demand for reliable and affordable energy sources. Specifically, oil demand is projected to increase by 18.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and natural gas demand by 19.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Renewable energy is also set to expand significantly. OPEC forecasts that demand for renewable energy sources will rise to 99.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2050, with solar and wind power accounting for the majority of this growth. The share of renewable energy in the global energy mix is expected to increase from 15.3% in 2025 to 25.9% by 2050, though it will still remain below the share of oil. Nuclear energy demand is also projected to grow, accounting for about 6.7% of the global energy mix by 2050, up from 4.8% in 2025.

Supply Projections

On the supply side, OPEC expects OPEC+ countries to increase output by nearly 14 million barrels per day, reaching 64.5 million barrels per day by 2050. Their share of the global market is projected to rise from 48% in 2025 to 52%. In the nearer term, OPEC+ production could reach 55.3 million barrels per day by 2030, an increase of 4.7 million barrels per day.

Non-OPEC+ countries are expected to add approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2030, bringing their output to about 60 million barrels per day, where it is expected to remain through the 2030s. The report highlights Canada and Argentina as notable exceptions among non-OPEC+ producers, with their supplies continuing to grow even after 2030.

OPEC attributes the continued growth in oil and gas demand to rising global needs for reliable and affordable energy sources, as stated in the report.