Germany's heat-related deaths estimated at nearly 10,000 in 2026

Nearly 10,000 people have died in connection with high temperatures in Germany this year, more than in any full year since 2016, according to estimates from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), as reported by Deutsche Welle.

The institute estimated 9,800 heat-related deaths between the beginning of April and July 19. More than 5,000 of this year's deaths were linked to the intense heatwave in the second half of June, when temperatures approached 42 degrees Celsius in some areas.

The European Union's Copernicus climate service said June 2026 was the hottest June ever recorded in western Europe.

People aged 75 and above accounted for almost 7,900 of the estimated deaths, according to the RKI.

Coverage comparison

Deutsche Welle provided two reports on the topic, offering complementary angles. One focused on the overall death toll, citing RKI estimates of 9,800 deaths through July 19 and noting that the previous highest annual figure of the past decade was around 9,000 in 2018. The other report delved into the methodology behind the estimates, reporting that 5,120 heat-related deaths had occurred through June 28 and explaining how researchers arrive at such figures.

Both reports emphasized that heat-related mortality is an estimate because heat is rarely recorded as the direct cause of death unless a person dies from a condition such as heatstroke. Instead, high temperatures aggravate existing cardiovascular, respiratory, or kidney conditions, often leaving heat off death certificates — a phenomenon sometimes described as a "silent cause of death."

The reports also highlighted the statistical nature of the estimates. The RKI calculates heat-related deaths by comparing death figures from Germany's Federal Statistical Office with temperature trends from the German Weather Service. Researchers model how many deaths would have occurred under conditions with temperatures of no more than 20 degrees Celsius, the threshold above which heat-related mortality is assumed to begin.

Key claims

  • The Robert Koch Institute estimated 9,800 heat-related deaths in Germany between April 1 and July 19, 2026.
  • More than 5,000 of these deaths were linked to the heatwave in the second half of June.
  • June 2026 was the hottest June ever recorded in western Europe, according to the Copernicus climate service.
  • People aged 75 and above accounted for almost 7,900 of the estimated deaths.
  • Earlier RKI data reported 5,120 heat-related deaths through June 28, with 4,310 of those occurring in the final week of June.
  • Deaths in the week from June 22 to 28 were 32% higher than in the same period last year, according to Germany's Federal Statistical Office.
  • Researchers adjust for confounding factors when estimating heat-related mortality, according to Alexandra Schneider, deputy director of the Institute of Epidemiology at Helmholtz Munich.
  • Cold-associated mortality remains far higher than heat-associated mortality in Europe, as noted in one Deutsche Welle report.