Prediction marketplace Kalshi has issued its first-ever lifetime ban to former S. Rep. George Santos, the company said Monday. The ban stems from trades Santos placed in February on whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address — a market in which the outcome depended on his own actions.
Kalshi said its Compliance Department found that Santos made statements about attending the speech “with the intent to manipulate the price of the Yes or No contracts that he intended to purchase,” and that those statements “did in fact manipulate the price of said contracts.” The company also fined Santos $71,356, which it said was multiples of the $17,839.57 he made from the wagers. Kalshi said it added penalties because of Santos’s “lack of cooperation” with its investigation.
Santos responded defiantly on X, writing: “Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for.”
The ban comes amid ongoing legal scrutiny of Santos, who was expelled from Congress in 2023 and pleaded guilty in 2024 to federal charges including wire fraud, identity theft, and money laundering. He was sentenced to seven years in prison and ordered to pay nearly $374,000 in restitution and over $200,000 in forfeiture.
In late July, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle a separate Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigation into his trading activity. The CFTC had alleged that Santos made misrepresentations and omissions online that influenced the market he was betting on. His attorney, Joseph Murray, said at the time that the payment was meant “to put this matter behind” Santos and was not an admission of wrongdoing. “He chose a prompt, practical resolution, rather than protracted, costly litigation, and that choice should not be mistaken for admission of any wrongdoing, because it is not one,” Murray said.
According to Kalshi, Santos placed a series of large trades between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25, 2026, betting on whether he would attend the State of the Union. In a video posted to X in February, Santos said, “I’m gonna be in the gallery.” He ultimately did not attend the event. On his podcast in March, Santos said, “I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Kalshi did not confirm or deny whether Santos’s statements actually influenced the price of the contracts, according to a report from NBC News.