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Pakistan's energy sector faces a double challenge as Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Ltd (SNGPL) has declared force majeure on its regasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG) supply to power plants in Punjab, citing renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The declaration, reported by Dawn, comes alongside a significant price hike for RLNG, which the oil and gas regulator has attributed to costly spot market purchases amid supply disruptions.

Coverage Comparison

Two reports from Dawn cover different facets of the same energy crisis. One focuses on the regulatory price notification, detailing the increase in RLNG prices for June and the underlying reasons—mainly, purchases from the international spot market at short notice due to supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran war. The other report highlights SNGPL's force majeure declaration, which absolves the company from contractual liability for its inability to supply RLNG for three weeks, and warns of potential power shortages and loadshedding in Upper Punjab and Northern Areas.

While the price notification provides a granular look at the cost implications, the force majeure story emphasises the immediate operational impact, including the possibility of higher outages or increased fuel costs. Both reports rely on official sources, including the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and SNGPL's communications.

Key Claims

According to Dawn's report on the price notification, Ogra has notified an approximately 15% increase in the price of RLNG for sales at the distribution stage by the two Sui gas companies for June. The price for June is 15% higher than in May, nearly 56% higher than in March, and 73% higher than in February. The fuel cost for RLNG-based power generation in May reached Rs31 per unit, up from Rs13.72 per unit in April.

The report also notes that Karachi-based Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL), which serves consumers in Sindh and Balochistan, has distribution-stage system losses of 12.55%, while Lahore-based SNGPL, supplying Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, has losses near 9%. At the transmission stage, the RLNG sale price for SNGPL increased by 14.85% to $17.94 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in June from $15.62 per mmBtu in May. At the distribution stage, the price for SNGPL rose by 14.94% to $19.5228 per mmBtu. For SSGCL, the transmission-stage price increased by 16% to $16.368 per mmBtu in June.

Dawn also reports that Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) imported one cargo each at $19.134 per mmBtu and $18.4 per mmBtu in June and May, respectively, underscoring the high costs of spot purchases.

In its force majeure report, Dawn states that SNGPL declared force majeure due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and that the supply of LNG cargoes will mostly remain cut off until August 3. The company said its ability to perform its obligations under the Gas Supply Agreement (GSA) remains materially and adversely affected. The report warns that power shortage and loadshedding are anticipated in Upper Punjab and Northern Areas, as SNGPL's supply disruption could hamper power from over 5,000MW of RLNG-based plants in Punjab and curtail transmission from Sindh to upcountry load centres.

According to SNGPL's letters to four RLNG-based power plants, which Dawn cites, Pakistan State Oil (PSO) updated the company that the force majeure event notified due to the ongoing war in the Gulf region remains in effect. PSO conveyed that the regional military conflict remains unresolved and threats to security remain elevated. The supplier, Qatar Energy, has indicated it is prevented from delivering cargoes scheduled from July 14 to August 3, in addition to previously affected cargoes.