Fuel prices rise again on August 25
Fuel prices in the Philippines are set to increase again starting Tuesday, August 25, extending another run of pump price increases as fuel markets remain volatile.
In a press conference on Monday, August 24, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced the following fuel price adjustments for the week of August 25 to 31: gasoline up by P1.08 per liter, diesel up by P2.31 per liter, and kerosene up by P0.95 per liter.
The latest increase follows last week’s fuel price hike, when gasoline rose by P2.49 per liter, diesel by P3.84 per liter, and kerosene by P5.01 per liter, marking the second straight week of rising fuel prices. That August 18 increase undid the rollback from the previous week, when oil firms cut pump prices by P4.70 per liter for gasoline, P4.30 per liter for diesel, and P4.88 per liter for kerosene.
The DOE said the country’s fuel inventory as of Friday, August 21, stood at an average of 47.22 days, with diesel at 47.66 days, gasoline at 44.39 days, jet fuel at 75.57 days, LPG at 34.49 days, fuel oil at 54.33 days, and kerosene at 121.85 days.
Market context
The DOE’s oil monitor as of August 18 showed that Dubai crude prices increased by around $8.90 per barrel during the August 10 to 14 trading period. International prices of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel also rose by around $6.50 per barrel, $11.50 per barrel, and $11.40 per barrel, respectively.
Crude prices edged higher as prospects for a US-Iran agreement made no progress, while both sides continued to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz. The DOE also noted that the number of vessels transiting the strait fell to 16 on August 11 from 17 on August 10.
The DOE said the Asian diesel market firmed during the August 10 to 14 trading week amid escalating Middle East tensions, while Russia’s extension of its diesel export ban continued to support prices.
Local pump prices are well above levels seen before fighting involving Iran and US-Israeli forces broke out on February 28. In the last full week before the conflict, DOE data showed common retail prices in Metro Manila at P56 per liter for gasoline RON95, P54.70 per liter for gasoline RON91, P55 per liter for diesel, and P83.47 per liter for kerosene.
The Philippines is a net importer of petroleum products, making local pump prices vulnerable to global oil price swings, foreign exchange movements, regional refined fuel prices, and disruptions in international supply routes.
Possible rollback next week
While consumers face higher prices this week, a market expert suggests relief may be coming. Projections derived from the four-day trading average of the Mean of Platts Singapore indicate diesel prices could fall by ₱3.5 to ₱4 per liter next week, with gasoline expected to ease by a more modest ₱0.25 to ₱0.75 per liter.
The Department of Energy is scheduled to issue the final weekly price adjustments on Monday, Aug. 31, before oil firms apply the changes at the pump.
A rollback next week looks likely as fears of supply disruptions cooled down over the past week, according to the market source.
“Prices declined this week as threatened United States (US) sanctions fell short of market expectations, with economic pressure viewed as a lower-risk path for physical supply than military escalation,” the source said. “This reduced the oil market’s anxiety and eased immediate supply concerns.”
Markets are also responding to potential diplomatic progress, with renewed peace talks offering hope for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping chokepoint. According to the analyst, Iran recently resumed peace negotiations with Oman, though physical supplies may still remain constrained.
The source cautioned: “With the recent rebound in world oil prices following reports that the US is not interested in returning to the ceasefire deal terms with Iran, the potential rollback on local pump prices next week could be capped, with the risk of pushing to the lower limits of the initial estimated range.”
Higher export quotas from China, alongside increased shipments from the US and India, helped soften regional shortages and keep fuel supplies steady. “Increasing regional inventories as supply from China and India continues to rise have also pressured product prices this week,” the source added.
Meanwhile, the US is advancing negotiations with Venezuela to secure long-term controlling stakes or leases in over a dozen oil fields, aiming to boost US strategic energy reserves.