From surplus to strain: World rice supply threatened by Iran war, El Niño

Lead

Global rice supply is under mounting pressure this year as Asian farmers cut planting acreage due to fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs triggered by the Iran war, with an emerging El Niño likely to further squeeze output of the world's most-consumed staple, according to reports from the BBC and Dawn. The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) had forecast in April that rice output would expand by 2% to a record high in 2025/26, but that projection now looks increasingly fragile.

Rice is central to food security for billions, and even modest supply disruptions can ripple through countries, lifting prices and straining household budgets, especially for price-sensitive consumers in Asia and Africa. Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN FAO, warned that the world is likely to see "a tighter global supply situation in the second half of the year and early next year," as farmers plant crops using fewer inputs because prices have risen.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage from BBC and Dawn highlights different aspects of the unfolding crisis. The BBC's reporting, filed in a concerned and informative tone, focuses on China's export ban on fertilisers and how its domestic food security law has curbed exports of key agricultural inputs. It also details the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure on global fertiliser trade and tells the story through vivid individual accounts, such as Suchart Piamsomboon, a 60-year-old Thai farmer who has decided not to plant this season because fertiliser prices have spiked to over 1,100 baht per sack, up from 800-900 baht just a month ago.

Dawn's more neutral and data-driven reporting emphasises the combined effect of fertiliser shortages, fuel costs, and El Niño on rice output in Southeast Asia. It cites the UN FAO forecast and notes that the Iran war is affecting farmers in top exporters Thailand and Vietnam. The Pakistani newspaper also highlights that fertiliser prices have risen, forcing farmers to cut use, with prices increasing to 1,000-1,200 baht per bag in Thailand.

Key Claims

• Rice supply is expected to fall this year as farmers cut planting acreage across Asia because of fertiliser shortages and soaring fuel costs from the Iran war, according to reports from both BBC and Dawn.
• The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation forecast rice output to expand by 2% in 2025/26, a figure from a single source cited by Dawn.
• El Niño is set to impact rice output in Southeast Asia, with both outlets covering the weather phenomenon's likely effect.
• China has banned exports of several types of fertiliser, according to BBC reporting, highlighting the country's role as the world's largest fertiliser producer.
• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant increase in fertiliser prices, with the price of urea jumping more than 40%, as reported by BBC.
• The Philippines faces a precarious situation, relying on Vietnam for nearly 80% of its rice imports, and Vietnam relies on Chinese fertiliser, according to BBC's report.
• The UN World Food Programme estimates that the combined fallout from the Middle East conflict could push 45 million additional people into acute hunger in 2026, a figure attributed to the BBC report.
• Rice shipments are already facing supply-chain bottlenecks, including a shortage of polypropylene bags and limited truck availability, according to a trader quoted by BBC.
• India, the world's biggest exporter, holds a record 42 million tonnes of rice, which could cushion any drop in global production, a data point reported by Dawn.

Perspectives

The situation on the ground is desperate for smallholder farmers. In Thailand, farmer Suchart Piamsomboon's story captures the painful calculation many are making: "I've decided not to do it," he said, when asked about planting. "Farming only leads to financial losses. I'd rather work as a day labourer and earn 100 to 200 baht a day just to get by. Expenses don't go down, but income keeps falling." For him and many others, skipping a season may be the only way to avoid bankruptcy, but it also means less rice on the global market.

Analysts note that the world has seen such dislocations before. In 2008, export curbs by key suppliers more than doubled prices and triggered unrest in several countries. More recently, supply tightness in 2022-2023, worsened by India's export restrictions, lifted prices and prompted panic buying. The current crisis, however, comes with an added layer of uncertainty due to the compounding effects of conflict, climate variability, and market speculation. As farmers from Thailand's rice belt to Vietnam's Mekong Delta make their choices in the coming weeks, the decisions they make will shape how much the world's rice bowl yields at the end of the year.