Four in five Britons worried Iran war will make food more expensive, poll finds

Lead

Four in five people in Britain are worried that the war involving Iran will push up the price of food, according to a new Opinium poll reported by The Guardian. The same research found that 73% expect the conflict to raise the prices of other products. The findings sit alongside a series of bank transaction records, consumer-confidence surveys and industry warnings pointing to weaker household spending and rising anxiety over energy bills, fuel and groceries as tensions in the Middle East disrupt supply chains.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has already driven oil and gas prices higher, contributing to pressure on the fertiliser industry and on shipping and distribution costs. Effects have been felt most sharply in manufacturing and chemicals, sectors that use large amounts of gas. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 3.7% in the year to March 2026, while research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit indicates food prices are on track to stand 50% higher than at the start of 2021.

Coverage comparison

Reporting in The Guardian has drawn on several recent data releases to map the same underlying picture of household caution. One strand centres on Barclays card-transaction figures for April, which recorded the first year-on-year fall in UK card spending since November 2024 and the fastest pace of cutbacks in 18 months. Another strand highlights the S&P Global consumer sentiment index, which slipped to 42.1 in May, its lowest reading since July 2023. A third focuses on PwC’s quarterly confidence score, which dropped to -13 in April from -1 in January, the fastest three-month decline since June 2022. A fourth strand leads with the Opinium poll on food-price fears and with calls from retail leaders for ministers to reduce energy costs for shops.

Across these accounts the Bank of England’s recent warning is a common reference point: the central bank has said higher inflation is unavoidable, with typical energy bills expected to rise 16% to £1,900 and food prices forecast to increase 7% by the end of the year. Attribution rests on the named data providers—Barclays, S&P Global, PwC, Opinium, the British Retail Consortium and KPMG—together with direct comments from economists and retail executives.

Key claims

• Opinium polling found 80% of respondents worried that the Iran war will make food more expensive and 73% expecting the conflict to push up prices of other products; 81% were worried about rising energy bills, 76% about petrol and diesel, and 68% about tax increases.
• Barclays data showed a 0.1% year-on-year fall in UK card spending in April, the first such decline since November 2024; non-essential spending fell 0.3% while essential spending rose 0.3%.
• Travel spending declined 5.7% (airlines down 8.3%) while digital content and subscriptions rose 9.2%; fuel spending increased 10.4%, the largest rise since December 2022.
• A Barclays survey found 72% of consumers expect Middle East tensions to affect their cost of living throughout 2026; confidence in non-essential spending dropped to 49%, the lowest since March 2023.
• BRC/KPMG figures showed a 3% fall in retail sales in April, a result skewed by the timing of Easter.
• The S&P Global consumer sentiment index fell to 42.1 in May from 42.3 in April, the lowest since July 2023; 51% of respondents anticipate a rise in interest rates, the highest share in two and a half years.
• UK inflation stood at 3.3% in March and was expected to ease to 3% in April while remaining above the 2% target; job insecurity reached its highest level since March 2023.
• PwC’s quarterly survey recorded a consumer confidence score of -13 in April, down from -1 in January; nearly 90% of 2,068 consumers surveyed said they were concerned about the cost of living and almost 80% planned to cut spending in the next three months.
• The share of consumers planning to drive less to save money doubled from 12% to 24% since January; among under-35s, the proportion feeling financially healthy fell 20% while those struggling rose 9%.
• The Bank of England has warned of a 16% rise in typical energy bills to £1,900 and a 7% rise in food prices by year-end, describing higher inflation as unavoidable.
• Jack Meaning, Barclays chief UK economist, identified the duration of uncertainty as the key unknown for the UK outlook.
• Maryam Baluch of S&P Global said inflation worries have firmly taken centre stage and are eroding savings.
• Sam Waller of PwC UK said rising costs are prompting shoppers to pull back spending across the board.
• Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the British Retail Consortium, said ministers should remove non-commodity energy costs for retailers and noted that Germany has already reduced electricity costs for businesses while EU leaders discuss similar steps.
• Simon Roberts, chief executive of Sainsbury’s, said limiting energy prices for retailers is the single biggest step the government could take to keep prices down.
• A government spokesperson has pointed to the suspension of selected food tariffs as part of the response; Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced additional support in April for the most energy-intensive businesses, and supermarket bosses met her at the start of that month.

Perspectives

Retail and business leaders: Helen Dickinson of the BRC and Simon Roberts of Sainsbury’s argue that the government should act quickly to lower non-commodity energy costs and limit energy prices for retailers, warning that the window for effective intervention is closing and citing steps already taken in Germany and under discussion in the EU.

Bank of England: The central bank has stated that a further rise in inflation is unavoidable given the impact of the conflict on energy and food prices, and has set out quantitative forecasts for household energy bills and food inflation.

Government: Officials have highlighted support already announced for energy-intensive firms and the suspension of certain food tariffs; Chancellor Rachel Reeves met supermarket executives in early April.