A Race for a Backup Capital
For 158 years, Tokyo has served as Japan's political and cultural heart. But now, the city may soon share its role. Japanese legislators recently passed a bill to create a secondary capital—an alternate center for government operations to ensure continuity in the event of a natural disaster or other emergency. The plan has triggered a spirited competition among local governments, with thirteen already declaring interest, including Osaka, Fukuoka, Hokkaido, and even the smaller, mountainous region of Gunma, home to about 1.9 million people.
The stakes are high. The chosen region could gain access to hundreds of millions of dollars in funding, tax breaks, and a boost in tourism and urban revitalization. Local leaders have held flashy news conferences to promote their bids; Osaka has even created a mascot, a talking "welcoming cat" named Nyaniwa Fukumaru. Masashi Kawai, a senior policy officer at the Tokyo Foundation, a think tank, described the atmosphere as a "don't-miss-the-gold-rush" mentality, with the competition having the feel of a grand festival.
Disaster Preparedness or Political Reward?
Supporters argue that Japan, which lies along the seismologically active Pacific "Ring of Fire," needs a reliably functional government if Tokyo is ever incapacitated. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami—a 9.1 magnitude event that killed more than 19,000 people and triggered a nuclear disaster—remains a stark reminder, with Tokyo located about 370 kilometers southwest of the epicenter. Experts have long warned about the possibility of a megaquake directly hitting Tokyo.
However, critics see the plan as a politically motivated reward for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's allies, particularly the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), which has its base in Osaka and has long campaigned for that city to become an alternate capital. The backup capital initiative is a key pillar of the ruling coalition agreement between Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the JIP. According to the Japan Wire by Kyodo News, the law was enacted "in a rush" in the previous parliamentary session and has drawn criticism that it only favors Osaka.
Makiko Kishi, a lawmaker from the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, called the proposal "half-baked" and "tainted by partisan maneuvering." Nobuo Sasaki, a professor emeritus at Chuo University, said the legislation fails to account for factors like ground stability and remains unclear on what constitutes a secondary capital.
The Osaka Factor
The JIP, led by Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, has been pushing for an "Osaka metropolis plan"—an idea that would give the city greater autonomy—and has faced setbacks: referendums on the proposal were narrowly rejected in 2015 and 2020. Yoshimura has said he intends to hold a third referendum alongside the next gubernatorial election in the spring. Takaichi reportedly pushed ahead with the second capital idea after reaching an agreement with the JIP, which had helped her secure parliamentary approval to become prime minister last October.
Yoshimura argues that Osaka can serve both as a backup for Tokyo and as a decentralized economic growth driver. Aichi Governor Hideaki Omura is promoting his prefecture, home to Toyota, as "Japan's engine of economic growth and overwhelming center of industrial concentration." Gunma Governor Ichita Yamamoto highlights his region's lower disaster risk and convenient access to Tokyo, making it a suitable base for restoration and recovery efforts.
Nagoya Mayor Ichiro Hirosawa has also thrown his hat in the ring, reportedly skipping a planned dance festival to hold a news conference promoting his city, with an emphasis on its manufacturing strengths. Hokkaido and Sapporo officials have set up teams to pursue the designation, emphasizing their distance from the Nankai Trough, a major seismic zone.
A Vague Law and a Murky Process
The legislation, enacted on July 24 and set to take effect by the end of October, allows the prime minister to designate a backup capital based on applications from prefectures that meet requirements such as population and economic size. One or more capitals could be selected, as long as they are unlikely to be hit by the same disasters as Tokyo. The government has not yet specified the exact criteria, but it is expected to do so in the coming months, and Takaichi will have the final say on the winner.
This vagueness has alarmed academics and analysts. Akifumi Shimada, a professor at Kyushu University's Graduate School of Law, said that "in theory, a fair selection process that is not predetermined in Osaka's favor is possible, depending on how the system will be designed." However, he added that "the legislation has been politically tied very closely to the 'Osaka metropolis plan,' and political dynamics are already at play, making such a fair process difficult in reality." Shimada urged the government to disclose proposals by candidate regions and the review process and results, and to entrust the screening to independent third-party bodies.
Kentaro Kanasaki, a professor at Mukogawa Women's University, noted that the best location for backup government functions may differ from the best industrial center, and that the legislation was enacted without sufficient public debate. He also warned that the initiative could widen regional disparities and shift excessive concentration from Tokyo to a few other centers.
Concerns Beyond Fairness
Beyond the politics, practical questions remain about the suitability of certain candidates. Opposition lawmakers argue that Osaka, located near several fault lines, is too vulnerable to earthquakes for a backup capital, and they raise concerns about the cost of building new government structures. Kawai of the Tokyo Foundation cautioned that without creative local growth strategies, the initiative could bring "100 harms and not one good."
As the competition heats up, the central question remains unresolved: will the selection be based on objective criteria that ensure disaster resilience, or will it be swayed by political alliances? With the cabinet expected to outline its requirements soon, the coming months will reveal whether the race for Japan's second capital is a genuine exercise in national planning or a gift to political partners.