Lead

The first ships have sailed through the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, according to ship-tracking data and multiple news reports. However, the trickle of traffic remains a fraction of the pre-conflict daily average, and many vessel operators are holding back amid security warnings and unresolved questions about transit conditions.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from various outlets, including BBC, Dawn, TASS, and the Jerusalem Post, confirm that at least two vessels — the Greek-owned bulk carrier NJ Earth and the Liberia-flagged tanker Daytona Beach — crossed the strait on the morning of April 8, shortly after the ceasefire took effect. The BBC, citing ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic, reported that only three tankers had passed through by mid-afternoon on April 8, compared with an average of 138 ships per day before the conflict began on February 28.

AllAfrica, citing MarineTraffic data, noted that African-linked vessels were among the first non-Iranian ships to navigate the waterway, including a Gabon-flagged tanker carrying Emirati fuel oil bound for India and a South Africa-linked tanker. TASS reported that a Japanese LNG carrier, the Sohar, successfully transited the strait in early April, marking the first Japanese vessel to do so since the US and Israeli strikes began.

Key Claims

  • Ceasefire and Transit Terms: The US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz guaranteed. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said transit would be possible via coordination with Iran's armed forces. Iran's navy has warned that vessels seeking to cross without permission "will be targeted and destroyed," according to a warning received by ships and reported by the BBC.
  • Limited Traffic: At least 12 vessels have crossed the strait since the ceasefire, according to Kpler data cited by AllAfrica. The Guardian reported an estimated 2,000 vessels trapped in the Gulf, while Dawn cited Lloyd's List estimating around 800 ships stuck. TASS reported several hundred ships, including 426 tankers and more than 50 gas carriers, still in the Persian Gulf.
  • Iran-Linked Ships Dominate: According to the Jerusalem Post, citing Kpler and Lloyd's List Intelligence data, most ships that sailed through the strait in the past day were linked to Iran, including a crude supertanker, a bunkering tanker, and four dry bulk ships. Other vessels are reportedly delaying voyages despite the ceasefire.
  • Energy Market Impact: The Guardian reported that energy markets have fallen sharply on hopes that trapped oil and gas could soon be released, but analysts caution that the ceasefire may not be enough to restore flows to pre-crisis levels. The Strait of Hormuz carries about a fifth of the world's oil and LNG.

Perspectives

Cautious Optimism: Some analysts and shipowners view the initial crossings as a positive sign, but emphasize that a temporary ceasefire does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe transit. Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime told the BBC that "most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available."

Iranian Management Concerns: Iran has stated that transit will be under Iranian military management, and the Revolutionary Guard has been directing vessels along specified routes. A Botswana-flagged LNG tanker was reportedly redirected by the Revolutionary Guard after attempting to exit via a designated route, according to the Associated Press via AllAfrica.

Uncertain Recovery: The Guardian notes that the ceasefire is already looking shaky, with Tehran arguing that Israeli attacks on Lebanon breach the deal. Analysts fear that even if the ceasefire holds, returning to pre-crisis traffic levels will take time due to safety checks and insurance considerations.

Regional Impact: The disruption has affected global supply chains, with ships stuck for weeks, some with dwindling supplies of food and water for crews. The UN estimates about 20,000 seafarers are aboard trapped vessels, according to The Guardian.