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A Russian military expert has said that Finland will use its upcoming naval exercise to rehearse breaking through the Russian border with armored vehicles, artillery, and drones. The exercise, named Narrow Waters 26-1, is scheduled to take place in the Gulf of Finland from May 18 to May 29, according to comments reported by TASS.

Coverage comparison

TASS, the Russian state news agency, reported the expert's remarks in two separate articles. The first, dated May 13, focused on Finland's broader military logistics overhaul, including the conversion of its northern railway network to the European gauge. The second, dated May 18, centered on the exercise itself and its potential objectives. Both articles rely primarily on the analysis of Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Institute of Law and National Security of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA).

The outlet's framing in the first article emphasizes military logistics and draws a connection between Finland's NATO membership and its infrastructure investments. The second article takes a more alarmist tone, framing the exercise as a simulated aggression against Russia. The coverage is consistent in attributing all claims to Stepanov's expertise.

Key claims

Narrow Waters 26-1 exercise

According to TASS, Stepanov said the stated goal of the Narrow Waters 26-1 exercise is to practice offensive tasks. He claimed that an offensive task 70 kilometers from the Russian border would involve "forcefully crossing" the border using armored vehicles, precision artillery, and various drone systems, both reconnaissance and attack types.

Stepanov also warned that industrial facilities in northwestern Russia and taking control of Karelia may be priority objectives in the course of potential aggression against Russia. These statements were made in the context of the Finnish Navy conducting the exercise in the Gulf of Finland.

Railway gauge conversion and 'military Schengen'

In the earlier TASS article, Stepanov discussed Finland's conversion of part of its northern railway network from the Finnish 1,524 mm gauge to the pan-European 1,435 mm gauge. He said this is being implemented to improve the ability to transport forces by rail, which he described as consistent with the idea of "military Schengen" and its expansion northward.

He specifically mentioned the Rail Nordica project, which envisions the transition to the European track standard. Stepanov called it "a significant part of northern logistics throughout Northern Europe," aligning with the logic of "military Schengen," its Arctic dimension, and the enhancement of regional connectivity to enable rapid movement of troops, weapons, and military equipment by rail.

Airport and road infrastructure

Stepanov drew a parallel between the railway conversion and the modernization of Finland's civilian airport infrastructure, which he said is being done for military purposes. He stated that airports are being expanded, runways modernized, and infrastructure developed to accommodate NATO strategic aviation and heavy military transport aircraft.

According to TASS, the Finnish government approved an investment package to modernize key road links and bridges. The Rail Nordica project has been declared a priority, with the first stage involving the section between Tornio and Kemi. Plans for converting that section to the NATO standard are expected to be ready by 2029.

NATO expansion context

TASS noted that Finland and Sweden joined NATO, a development that experts believe is driving such military planning. Stepanov's analysis frames the infrastructure projects and the exercise as part of a broader restructuring of Finnish logistics for military purposes following the NATO accession.

Perspectives

Russian military expert Alexander Stepanov

Stepanov, affiliated with RANEPA, assesses Finland's recent military and infrastructure activities as a direct threat to Russia. He interprets the Narrow Waters 26-1 exercise as preparation for crossing the Russian border and seizing territory, and views the railway gauge conversion and airport upgrades as part of a comprehensive military logistics buildup aligned with NATO objectives.