Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview published by Germany’s Bild newspaper on Aug. 29 that Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack a NATO country, and that Moscow’s only option for escalating its war is mobilization, according to The Kyiv Independent and the South China Morning Post.
Speaking to Bild, Stubb expressed confidence in NATO’s deterrent capabilities, stating: “Firstly, I have intelligence. And secondly, we have a deterrent — and this deterrent is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world. It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance.”
Stubb added that he did not believe Russia “would ever want to attack NATO, the world’s most powerful military alliance,” and said the alliance had to be prepared for any scenario but that Moscow was not in a position to go to war with NATO. He cited NATO’s strength in conventional weapons, missiles, and nuclear weapons as too strong to make an attack sensible, and said he had intelligence information to back his assessment.
The Finnish leader also argued that Russia is suffering too many losses to open a second front against another European country and cannot mobilize enough troops to do so. He suggested that fears of Russian escalation or expansion are part of Russian misinformation, while still calling for Europe to “prepare for the worst in order to prevent it.”
“At the moment, Russia’s options for escalation are quite limited. The only thing Russia can still escalate with is mobilization. And I believe mobilization would have domestic political repercussions in Russia,” Stubb said.
Despite the political risk, Stubb said Russia is likely to proceed with another round of mobilization during the fall as it faces record losses on the battlefield, noting that recent Russian laws on closing borders and restricting movement indicate such a move. “Because the truth is, at this pace, they can’t maintain their war effort for much longer,” he added.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Aug. 25 accused Ukrainian authorities of trying to “ideologically destabilize the situation” in Russia by spreading reports about a possible new mobilization, calling such reports “fabricated stories.”
Stubb also mentioned that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told him, “We will never allow that to happen,” in reference to Russia using nuclear weapons, according to The Kyiv Independent. Stubb described this as an effective deterrent.