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FIFA World Cup: Which quarterfinal team has best chance to win the trophy?

Spain return to the top of the FIFA rankings after dethroning Argentina, who remain among four favourites still alive at the World Cup. Al Jazeera assesses the title credentials of the remaining eight teams, from Argentina's unconvincing path to England's character and France's attacking depth.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 outlet · 3 articles Version 1 Coverage Jul 9–20, 2026 Published Aug 15

Lead

As the World Cup reaches its final eight, Spain have reclaimed the top spot in the FIFA men's rankings after beating Argentina 1-0 in a rematch of the 2022 final. Argentina drop to second, France hold third, and England remain fourth. Al Jazeera's analysis of the remaining contenders highlights a mix of established powers and first-time hopefuls, with the semifinals set for Tuesday and Wednesday and the final scheduled for July 19 at New York New Jersey Stadium.

Coverage comparison

Al Jazeera's coverage spans two distinct angles: a rankings update and a deeper tactical assessment of the eight quarterfinalists. The rankings story focuses on the movement caused by recent World Cup results, while the contender analysis ranks teams by their perceived title chances, weighing form, squad depth, and path to the final.

The rankings report notes that Spain's Luis de la Fuente lifted his side to the top for the first time since January after extra-time victory over the 2022 champions. Argentina, despite the loss, remained ahead of France, who stayed third after losing the bronze-medal match to England. Brazil rose to fifth, and Morocco climbed to a record-high sixth.

The analytical piece groups the favourites at the top, with Argentina listed fourth despite being defending champions. The outlet describes their route to the quarterfinals as one of the kindest in recent memory, yet notes they have not been convincing, needing late drama against Cape Verde and Egypt and extra time against Switzerland.

Key claims

Several statistical claims emerge from the rankings update. Norway jumped 12 places to 19th after reaching the quarterfinals, the biggest rise among all nations. Spain climbed back to the top, Argentina dropped to second, France remained third, and Brazil rose to fifth. Morocco's sixth-place finish is a record high for the nation. Portugal fell two places to seventh after their Round of 16 exit, while Belgium swapped with the Netherlands to take eighth. Mexico broke into the top 10 with a four-place climb, Germany fell out of the top 10 to 12th, and Italy slipped to 15th after failing to qualify. Tunisia suffered the biggest drop, falling 12 places to 57th.

On the pitch, Al Jazeera highlights Spain's defensive strength, noting they have not conceded a goal in the tournament. France's attacking depth is described as a fearsome foursome, supported by a defence that has allowed only two goals in five matches. England's chances are framed around character: the outlet says the Three Lions have character in abundance and will likely need it to end 60 years of longing for a second World Cup title.

Argentina's unconvincing path is a recurring theme. The outlet notes that Lionel Messi's side were made to sweat by Cape Verde and Egypt, and against Switzerland they went almost 90 minutes without a shot on target after an early goal. The ageing side eventually prevailed after 120 minutes in sweltering conditions, but the report suggests they cannot get away with another performance like that against England.

Switzerland, ranked eighth among the contenders, are seen as unlikely to make further history despite reaching the last eight for the first time in 72 years. The potential loss of 20-year-old Johan Manzambi, a breakout star, to a knee injury is noted as a blow to their hopes against Argentina.

Perspectives

Argentina: The defending champions are considered outsiders despite their status. The outlet emphasises their kind draw and lack of convincing performances, suggesting they rely on late resilience rather than dominance.

Spain: Ranked as strong title contenders on the basis of their defensive record and recent ranking top spot. The outlet's framing suggests they are the team to beat.

France: Highlighted for their attacking firepower and solid defence, placing them among the favourites.

England: Positioned as a team with character and potential, with the historic weight of 60 years without a title adding pressure.

Switzerland: Portrayed as overachievers whose run may end soon, especially if Manzambi is unavailable.

How this outlet told it

Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC

Framing: FIFA men's rankings update — Informative

Facts Included:

Norway jumped 12 spots to 19th in FIFA men's rankings
Spain climbed back to the top of the FIFA men's rankings
Argentina dropped to second place
France remained third in the rankings
Brazil rose to fifth
Morocco climbed to a record-high sixth

Read the source article →

Al Jazeera as of Jul 13, 2026, 7:15 AM UTC

Framing: World Cup contenders analysis — Analytical

Facts Included:

Argentina's path to the quarterfinals
England's chances of winning the World Cup
Spain's defensive record
France's attacking prowess

Read the source article →

Al Jazeera as of Jul 9, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC

Framing: World Cup quarterfinals analysis — Informative

Facts Included:

Switzerland's chances of advancing
Morocco's potential for an upset
Belgium's improved performance
Norway's efficient passage to the quarterfinals

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimNorway jumped 12 spots to 19th in FIFA men's rankings	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC
ClaimSpain climbed back to the top of the FIFA men's rankings	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC
ClaimArgentina dropped to second place in the FIFA men's rankings	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC
ClaimFrance remained third in the rankings	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC
ClaimBrazil rose to fifth in the rankings	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC
ClaimMorocco climbed to a record-high sixth in the rankings	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 20, 2026, 5:16 PM UTC
ClaimArgentina's path to the quarterfinals was not convincing	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 13, 2026, 7:15 AM UTC
ClaimEngland has character in abundance and will likely need it to end 60 years of longing for a second World Cup title	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 13, 2026, 7:15 AM UTC
ClaimSpain's defence is strong, having not conceded a goal in the tournament	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 9, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC
ClaimFrance has a fearsome foursome in attack and a defence that has only allowed two goals in five matches	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Al Jazeera as of Jul 9, 2026, 2:01 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 outlet · 3 articles consulted: Al Jazeera 10 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-15