Deep-sea mining in the Pacific could begin within months, report finds
A new report from the Lowy Institute warns that commercial deep-sea mining in the Pacific could begin within months without policy guardrails, driven by the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China over critical minerals. According to the analysis, mining could start as early as 2027, with the Pacific Ocean floor holding vast quantities of these prized resources.
The competition between the world's two largest economies is fueled by demand from batteries, weapons systems, and power grids. This external pressure places Pacific nations in a difficult position, caught between the possibility of economic benefits and the potential for irreversible damage to marine ecosystems, fisheries, food security, livelihoods, and cultural heritage.
The report argues that the absence of a comprehensive international governance framework for commercial deep-sea mining leaves Pacific states negotiating without internationally agreed protections, often depending on individual agreements drafted by companies interested in mining their ocean floor.
Expert urges Australia to take a stand
Dr Connor Graham, the report's author, highlights the inherent dilemma: "For the Pacific Island nations caught in the middle of this great power battle for critical mineral supremacy, the economic proposition is difficult to refuse."
He further explains the systemic issue: "The problem is not that Pacific nations disagree, it is that they are being forced to negotiate individually against parties with vastly more resources, information, and legal capacity, and that the international framework designed to protect them has stalled."
Graham notes that while Australia has yet to establish a clear position on deep-sea mining in the Pacific, it possesses the standing, relationships, and institutional presence to make a difference, including through its membership in the Pacific Islands Forum and its long-standing alliance with the United States.
The call to Australia
Dr Graham warns that inaction is not neutral: "A commitment to standards that have not been written as a condition for activity that is about to begin is less of a policy, and more of an abstention."
He emphasizes the urgency for Australia: "But Australia cannot afford to abstain from this debate."
Australia's engagement in critical minerals is already underway, with the country starting to enter into deals for these resources, which are vital for several emerging technologies. The federal government has also announced a $1.2 billion critical minerals strategic reserve, aiming to secure supply chains deemed crucial for Australia's economy and national security.
As the timeline for commercial mining activities in the Pacific potentially shortens, the report underscores the need for Pacific nations to have a collective voice and for Australia to step into a supportive role.