Experts dispute US account of deadly Iran sports hall strike in Lamerd

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A deadly strike on a sports hall in the southern Iranian city of Lamerd on February 28 has become the subject of a contentious public dispute, with multiple weapons experts disputing the US military's denial of involvement. The attack, which Iranian officials say killed 21 people including children, occurred on the first day of the US-Israeli military operation against Iran.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) has categorically denied that US forces struck Lamerd, saying the footage circulating in media reports does not match the specifications of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) that some experts have identified. However, a BBC investigation found that six independent weapons experts who examined the footage all contested the US position.

Coverage comparison

Reporting on the incident has diverged sharply depending on the source. The BBC's Verify team conducted an extensive forensic analysis of CCTV footage from Lamerd, which was authenticated and geolocated. In their initial report, three analysts at the defence intelligence company Janes and an expert at McKenzie Intelligence all said the missile seen in the footage was likely a PrSM — a new missile manufactured by Lockheed Martin for the US military. The experts cited the missile's visual features, the way it exploded, its trajectory, and the number of strikes in the area as the basis for their assessment.

The BBC report noted that the CCTV footage showed a munition exploding mid-air above a residential area, which experts said was consistent with the PrSM's design to detonate before impact and disperse tungsten pellets for maximum effect over a wide area.

Official Russian news agency TASS, meanwhile, has primarily reported the statements of Iranian officials and the CENTCOM denial. In one TASS article, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei called the strike a "despicable war crime," alleging that the US used a PrSM filled with tungsten pellets. In another TASS piece, CENTCOM's denial was reported without the expert analysis featured in the BBC report.

Key claims

• US denial: CENTCOM released a statement on March 31 denying that US forces struck Lamerd. A spokesperson said the accusations were false, and that "US forces did not launch any strikes at any time into the city of Lamerd or anywhere within 30 miles during the opening day of Operation Epic Fury." The statement also suggested the footage was consistent with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile, adding: "US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times." When BBC Verify went back to CENTCOM with the experts' analysis, the command said it had "nothing to add."

• Expert analysis: The BBC report states that six experts, who examined the footage independently, all contested the US suggestion that it was an Iranian missile. According to BBC Verify, the experts based their conclusions on the missile's appearance, the size of the blast, and the distance from potential US launch sites in the Middle East. However, this analysis has not been independently corroborated by other outlets.

• Iranian account: Iranian officials have reported 21 people killed, including four children, and 100 wounded. Iran's Permanent Representative to the UN, Amir Saeid Iravani, provided these figures, which have also been cited by TASS. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Baghaei specifically said the attack killed 21 young boys and girls, and called it a war crime.

• US military operation: The strike occurred during a joint US-Israeli military operation against Iran that began on February 28, according to TASS. The White House justified the attack by citing alleged missile and nuclear threats from Iran. The operation reportedly included strikes on major Iranian cities, including Tehran, and resulted in the deaths of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other key Iranian leaders, per TASS's reporting.

Perspectives

The Lamerd incident illustrates how the same event can be presented in starkly different ways depending on the source.

From the US military's perspective, the denial is absolute. CENTCOM has stated unequivocally that US forces did not strike Lamerd, and has cast doubt on the authenticity of the footage, suggesting it shows an Iranian missile. This position aligns with the broader US narrative that its forces do not target civilians and that Iran has a history of attacking civilian locations.

From the Iranian government's perspective, the strike is a deliberate act of aggression against civilians, using a newly developed US weapon system. Iranian officials have provided specific details about the weapon and its effects, and have called for the international community to recognize it as a war crime.

The independent experts' perspective, as reported by BBC Verify, offers a technical counterpoint to the US denial. These analysts have examined the physical evidence and concluded that the missile in the footage is likely a US PrSM, based on its characteristics and the circumstances of the attack. Their analysis has not been publicly rebutted by CENTCOM beyond the initial denial.

It is worth noting that the expert analysis reported by the BBC has not been confirmed by other media outlets, and CENTCOM's denial has been reported by TASS without the experts' counterclaims. As with many events in conflict zones, the full picture may not be clear until more information comes to light.