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Expert forecasts dollar to rise to 87 rubles by end of 2026

The dollar surpassed 80 rubles on Forex for the first time since April 3, 2026, as Alfa-Bank's chief economist forecasts 87 rubles by end of 2026 and 95 rubles next year, citing recovering imports and pressure on export revenues.

By Tertius News AI Desk 1 outlet · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Jun 30 – Jul 6, 2026 Published Aug 15

Lead

The dollar exchange rate on Forex exceeded 80 rubles for the first time since April 3, 2026, according to ICE, a composite index of several forex brokers, as reported by TASS. Meanwhile, Alfa-Bank's chief economist Natalia Orlova told TASS that the official dollar exchange rate could reach 87 rubles by the end of 2026 and rise to 95 rubles next year.

Coverage Comparison

TASS, the Russian state news agency, provided two separate reports on the matter. The first, dated July 6, focused on current exchange rates, noting that the dollar was up by 3.98% at 80.375 rubles as of 11:57 a.m. Moscow time. In the Russian interbank market, the dollar was up by 0.78% at 77.89 rubles, while the euro rose by 0.94% to 88.916 rubles.

The second report, dated June 30, was forward-looking, presenting expert predictions from Natalia Orlova, chief economist and head of macroeconomic analysis at Alfa-Bank. She outlined expectations for the ruble's trajectory through 2026 and beyond, attributing the forecast to a mix of recovering imports, pressure on export revenues, and nervousness in the construction market.

Key Claims

The dollar exchange rate on Forex exceeded 80 rubles for the first time since April 3, 2026, rising by 3.98% to 80.375 rubles as of 11:57 a.m. Moscow time, according to TASS citing ICE.
In the Russian interbank market, the dollar was up by 0.78% at 77.89 rubles, and the euro was up by 0.94% at 88.916 rubles, as reported by TASS.
Natalia Orlova of Alfa-Bank told TASS that the official dollar exchange rate could reach 87 rubles by the end of 2026 and rise to 95 rubles next year.
Orlova stated that the fundamental equilibrium range for the exchange rate lies between 90 and 100 rubles per dollar.
She noted that the market is adapting quickly to exchange rate shifts, citing the dollar's rise from 70 rubles to around 77 rubles over the course of a week, with peaks as high as 80 rubles.
The Bank of Russia set the official dollar exchange rate for June 30, 2026, at 77.7539 rubles per dollar, up by 69.28 kopecks from the previous level, as reported by TASS.

How this outlet told it

TASS — English as of Jul 6, 2026, 9:31 AM UTC

Framing: Neutral, focusing on current exchange rates — Informative

Facts Included:

The dollar exchange rate on Forex exceeded 80 rubles for the first time since April 3, 2026
The dollar was up by 3.98% at 80.375 rubles as of 11:57 a.m. Moscow time
The dollar exchange rate in the Russian interbank market was up by 0.78% at 77.89 rubles
The euro was up by 0.94% at 88.916 rubles

Read the source article →

TASS — English as of Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

Framing: Forward-looking, focusing on potential future exchange rates — Analytical

Facts Included:

The official dollar exchange rate could reach 87 rubles by the end of 2026
The dollar exchange rate could rise to 95 rubles next year
The fundamental equilibrium range for the exchange rate lies between 90 and 100 rubles per dollar
The market is adapting quickly to exchange rate shifts

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimThe dollar exchange rate on Forex exceeded 80 rubles for the first time since April 3, 2026. The dollar was up by 3.98% at 80.375 rubles as of 11:57 a.m. Moscow time.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jul 6, 2026, 9:31 AM UTC
ClaimThe dollar exchange rate in the Russian interbank market was up by 0.78% at 77.89 rubles.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jul 6, 2026, 9:31 AM UTC
ClaimThe euro was up by 0.94% at 88.916 rubles.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jul 6, 2026, 9:31 AM UTC
ClaimThe official dollar exchange rate could reach 87 rubles by the end of 2026 and rise to 95 rubles next year.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
ClaimThe fundamental equilibrium range for the exchange rate lies between 90 and 100 rubles per dollar.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
ClaimThe market is adapting quickly to exchange rate shifts.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via TASS — English as of Jun 30, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

1 outlet · 2 articles consulted: TASS — English 6 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-15