Europe heatwave 'virtually impossible' without human-caused climate change

European Heat Wave 'Virtually Impossible' Without Climate Change, Study Finds

A rapid study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group, published Friday, concludes that the exceptional heatwave gripping Europe this week would have been "virtually impossible" 50 years ago without human-caused global warming. The researchers found that extreme temperatures are now up to 200 times more likely than just two decades ago, according to reports from Al Jazeera, Deutsche Welle, and RFI.

The WWA scientists compared the current heatwave with how the same weather pattern would have unfolded in 1976 and 2003 — years when heatwaves also occurred. They found that an equivalent event in June 1976 would have been around 3.5C cooler during the day and significantly cooler at night, while one in 2003 would have been about 2C cooler, as reported by Al Jazeera and RFI.

Record-Breaking Temperatures Across Europe

Millions of people across France, Spain, Italy and the UK have faced temperatures above 40C (104F) this week, according to Deutsche Welle and RFI. On Wednesday, France recorded its hottest day since measurements began in 1947, with average temperatures throughout the day and night reaching 30C, RFI reported. The intense heat has been linked to dozens of deaths and disrupted power supplies, schools, and tourist sites across parts of Europe, according to Al Jazeera.

The study found that nearly half of the 850 cities analyzed across Europe have reached or are expected to reach record heat-stress levels, which combine temperature and humidity, Deutsche Welle reported.

Attribution and Expert Commentary

Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London and co-founder of the WWA, said: "The weather pattern itself is not particularly unusual, but the temperatures are — or at least they used to be, without human-induced climate change. Climate change is unequivocally to blame." Her remarks were cited by RFI and Deutsche Welle.

The El Niño weather pattern — a natural warming climate phase — has "no role in driving the heat," the authors said, as reported by RFI. Scientists have long said carbon emissions from burning coal, oil and gas are making such extremes more likely and more severe.

Health Risks and Future Projections

The study warned that unusually warm nights pose a particular health risk because they prevent the body from recovering from daytime heat. In parts of France, overnight temperatures have remained above 20C for more than a week, according to RFI.

Dr Hans Kluge, the World Health Organization (WHO)'s regional director for Europe, told Al Jazeera that "heat-related mortality is likely to remain a feature of Europe's warming climate." He noted that deaths have already risen by an average of 52 per million people annually since the 1990s, a trend he says shows little sign of reversing on its own.

Europe has warmed at roughly twice the global average since the 1980s, according to the European Commission's climate change service, Copernicus, as cited by Al Jazeera. WWA's modelling indicates that at current emissions rates, an event of the magnitude of this summer's heatwave is expected to occur every couple of decades, Al Jazeera reported.

Dr Akshay Deoras of the University of Reading told Al Jazeera: "Think of it like a race where the starting line has been moved much closer to the finish." He added that this amounts to "loading the dice" towards once-rare extremes.

Otto expressed frustration at the repeated nature of such events, saying: "Scientists like me are beginning to sound like a broken record. We put out similar quotes year after year, reacting to heat extremes that climb ever higher. Yes, this is climate change, yes, it's us, no, it's not El Nino. Yes, we have the solutions. No, we're not implementing them fast enough." Her comments were reported by Deutsche Welle.

Key Claims

• The European heat wave would have been "virtually impossible" 50 years ago without human-caused global warming.
• Extreme temperatures are now up to 200 times more likely than two decades ago.
• Millions faced temperatures above 40C in France, Italy, Spain and the UK.
• France recorded its hottest day since measurements began in 1947.
• Nearly half of the 850 cities analyzed across Europe have reached or are expected to reach record heat-stress levels.
• Last summer's heatwave caused an estimated 2,300 climate-related deaths in 12 European countries.
• Europe has warmed at roughly twice the global average since the 1980s.
• Intense heat on this level is now tens to hundreds of times more likely than in 2003, and was unheard of 50 years ago.
• The El Niño weather pattern has no role in driving the heat.