Lead
ST. PETERSBURG, June 4. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak warned on Wednesday that a recent decline in global energy investments poses risks to the international economy, and that the situation on the global oil market remains extremely uncertain. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), Novak addressed both the investment shortfall and the broader implications of geopolitical tensions and shifting energy demand.
Coverage Comparison
All reporting on this story originates from TASS, the Russian state news agency, which covered Novak's statements at SPIEF. The coverage includes three main themes: the impact of a protracted Middle East conflict on energy consumption and transition, the unpredictability of oil demand over the next decade, and the risks stemming from reduced energy investments worldwide.
Each article draws directly on Novak's remarks, with no other sources cited in the provided material. TASS also provided consistent details about the forum itself, including its dates, theme, and organizing body.
Key Claims
Investment Decline and Economic Risks
Novak stated that there is a risk that investments in the energy sector have become slightly lower in recent years, but the balance of supply and demand will not be supported without investments. He characterized this as a global phenomenon that creates risks for the international economy.
Oil Market Uncertainty
Following a meeting with Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman, Novak said that no one can accurately predict demand dynamics for the next 5–10 years. He described the situation as "rather critical," noting that while this criticality is not yet expressed in figures, the "critical mass" is gradually growing. He added that uncertainties have increased exponentially, not only in the energy sector but in the economy as a whole.
Novak emphasized that global changes in logistics chains and energy transportation capabilities require a fundamental revision of assessments made just a few years ago. He noted the need to reconsider the outlook from both a behavioral perspective and in terms of interaction between countries that can jointly address these issues.
Middle East Conflict and Energy Transition
Addressing the potential consequences of a protracted conflict in the Middle East, Novak said it could push the global economy to replace traditional energy resources with alternative sources. He described "tectonic shifts" taking place in the economy and energy sector, which could have significantly negative impacts if the conflict persists.
Novak noted that many countries have already limited their energy consumption, particularly scarce petroleum products like jet fuel, leading to a reduction in air travel. He predicted that consumers will behaviorally react to demand-related changes in the future, with shifts aimed at finding and building new logistics routes, seeking new ways to transport energy resources, and finding replacements from alternative sources.
Forum Details
SPIEF is taking place on June 3–6. This year's main theme is "Pragmatic Dialogue: The Path to a Stable Future." The forum's program focuses on shaping a new model of global development amid the transformation of the world economy. The Roscongress Foundation is the organizer of the forum, with TASS serving as its general information partner. This marks the 29th edition of the forum (SPIEF-2026).