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El Niño set to return in mid-2026, UN warns of global climate impacts

The World Meteorological Organization has announced that El Niño conditions are likely to develop as early as May–July 2026, with early signs pointing to a potentially strong event. The natural climate phenomenon, which can disrupt weather patterns globally, comes after the last El Niño contributed to record-breaking temperatures in 2023 and 2024.

By Tertius News AI Desk 2 outlets · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Apr 24, 2026 Published Aug 13

Lead

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that El Niño, the natural climate phenomenon known for raising global temperatures and disrupting weather systems, is expected to return by mid-2026. According to the UN agency, conditions could develop as early as the May-to-July window, with early indicators suggesting a potentially strong event.

Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, head of climate prediction at the WMO, expressed high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification. He noted that models indicate this could be a strong event, though forecast confidence typically improves after April.

Coverage Comparison

Two outlets, Africa News and Dawn, both reported the WMO's announcement on Friday. Africa News emphasized the global impact potential, framing the story as a warning that El Niño could drive higher global temperatures and disrupt weather systems. Dawn, a South Asian outlet, focused on the scientific announcement, highlighting the expected timing and potential effects on global temperatures.

Both sources quoted Moufouma-Okia and referenced the WMO's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, which showed a clear shift in conditions in the equatorial Pacific. Rising sea surface temperatures are pointing to a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July.

Key Claims

El Niño expected by mid-2026: Both sources reported the WMO's projection that El Niño conditions could develop as early as May–July 2026. The WMO indicated high confidence in the event's onset and potential intensification.

Record temperatures linked to previous El Niño: The last El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record, and 2024 became the all-time high, according to the WMO. This was reported by Dawn, while Africa News also noted that the combination of the previous El Niño and human-driven climate change made 2024 the hottest year on record.

Sea surface temperatures rising rapidly: Both sources highlighted that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are rising rapidly, signaling a shift toward El Niño conditions.

El Niño impacts on regional weather: El Niño is typically linked to heavier rainfall in southern South America and the Horn of Africa, while bringing drought conditions to Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia. This point was carried by Africa News.

Climate change and El Niño frequency: The WMO stated that there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, but it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events. This point was reported by Dawn.

Early warnings for preparedness: Africa News reported that the WMO emphasized the importance of early warnings to help governments and industries prepare, especially in sectors like agriculture, water management, energy, and public health.

Perspectives

Scientific perspective: The WMO, through its climate prediction chief, emphasizes the high confidence in the onset of El Niño and the potential for a strong event. They also caution that while El Niño is natural, climate change can amplify its impacts.

Global impact perspective: Africa News frames El Niño as a driver of higher global temperatures and disrupted weather patterns, highlighting the need for preparedness. This perspective underscores the potential consequences for vulnerable regions.

Regional perspective: Dawn, with a South Asian focus, presents the announcement informatively, paying attention to the implications for global temperatures and the nuances of climate change's role. This perspective emphasizes the scientific basis and avoids alarmist language.

Conclusion

As the world anticipates the return of El Niño, the WMO's warning serves as a call for governments and industries to prepare for potential impacts on agriculture, water resources, energy, and public health. While the natural phenomenon is not directly caused by climate change, its effects could be intensified by a warming planet, making early action essential.

How each outlet told it

Africa News as of Apr 24, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC

Framing: Global impact — Warning

Facts Included:

El Nino is expected to return by mid-2026
El Nino conditions could develop as early as May to July
El Nino's impact on specific regions such as southern South America and the Horn of Africa
The importance of early warnings for governments and industries to prepare for El Nino's consequences
The combination of the previous El Nino event and human-driven climate change made 2024 the hottest year on record

Read the source article →

Dawn as of Apr 24, 2026, 9:46 AM UTC

Framing: Scientific announcement — Informative

Facts Included:

El Nino is expected to return in mid-2026
El Nino conditions could develop as early as May to July
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high
Sea surface temperatures are rising rapidly in the equatorial Pacific
There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimEl Nino is expected to return in mid-2026. The United Nations’ weather and climate agency said El Nino conditions were likely as early as the May to July three-month window.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from Dawn as of Apr 24, 2026, 9:46 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimThe last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Dawn as of Apr 24, 2026, 9:46 AM UTC
ClaimSea surface temperatures are rising rapidly in the equatorial Pacific, pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from Dawn as of Apr 24, 2026, 9:46 AM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimThere is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Dawn as of Apr 24, 2026, 9:46 AM UTC
ClaimEl Nino's impact includes heavier rainfall in regions such as southern South America and the Horn of Africa, while bringing drought conditions to countries like Australia, Indonesia, and parts of Southeast Asia.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Africa News as of Apr 24, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC
ClaimThe combination of the previous El Nino event and human-driven climate change made 2024 the hottest year on record.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via Africa News as of Apr 24, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC
ClaimEarly warnings could help governments and industries prepare for El Nino's consequences, especially in sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy, and public health.	ConfidenceMedium	StatusSingle-source via Africa News as of Apr 24, 2026, 8:16 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

2 outlets · 2 articles consulted: Africa News, Dawn 7 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-13