Tertius News is an AI-native newsroom: an AI model reads the linked source articles below and extracts what each outlet reported, so you can compare their coverage side by side. How this works →
El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met Office
The UK Met Office has forecast that the developing El Niño will be the strongest in over a century, with Pacific sea surface temperatures expected to rise more than 3°C above normal. The event could drive 2027 to become the hottest year on record and bring wetter, stormier conditions to the UK and severe droughts to tropical regions.
The UK's Met Office has forecast that the El Niño event currently developing in the Pacific Ocean will be the strongest in over a century, with sea surface temperatures expected to rise more than 3°C above normal. The forecast, issued on Friday, warns that the event could push global temperatures to record levels and bring significant weather disruptions across the world.
An unprecedented event
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, described the forecast as "an unprecedented event", telling the BBC that "We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees -- that is unheard of in modern climate records." He added, "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts."
Typically, El Niño leads to sea surface temperature rises of between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius. The Met Office's forecast of more than 3°C would make this event "the largest since the 19th century", according to the agency. The Climate Brink dashboard, which aggregates forecast models using data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, projects the event could peak at a 3.9°C anomaly this November, well above the roughly 3°C anomaly seen during the 2015-16 El Niño, which was previously the strongest on record.
Pacific sea-surface temperatures are currently running about 2.6°C above the rolling 30-year average, according to the same dashboard. Some climate groups have projected even stronger warming, possibly 4°C above average, according to the BBC. Dr Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told the BBC that "It's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years."
Global and regional impacts
The Met Office warned that the event will have strong effects throughout the tropics, with "really severe droughts in places like South America, and the West Pacific", Scaife said. There is also a heightened risk of drought in southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe, including the UK, is likely to see wetter and stormier conditions this autumn and early winter.
Scaife said the forecast predicts "increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time". Met Éireann, Ireland's national meteorological service, has also warned of "intense" storms and rain, with climatologist Paul Moore noting that well-above-average sea surface temperatures increase atmospheric moisture and can intensify rainfall events.
The Met Office also said the El Niño could make 2027 the hottest year on record. Dr Nick Dunstone, a science fellow at the Met Office, said "2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the preindustrial period." Global temperatures in 2024 already exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to multiple reports.
Impacts on India's monsoon
The El Niño is already affecting India's monsoon, which is currently running 13% below normal, with around 40% of the country receiving at least 20% less rainfall than average, as reported by Livemint. The Met Office said the El Niño is causing well below normal rainfall in India, and the India Meteorological Department projects the full season at 90% of the long-period average, its lowest in 11 years.
Madhavan Rajeevan, atmospheric physicist and former secretary of India's earth sciences department, told The Telegraph that "almost all exceptionally strong El Niño events are associated with large deficits in the monsoon or drought." However, he noted that the phenomenon is part of an oscillatory system that will eventually reverse. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said temperatures could remain unusually high for months even after the El Niño weakens.
India's monsoon accounts for about 75% of the country's annual rainfall, making the forecast particularly significant for agriculture. Kulwinder Kaur Gill, a crop scientist at Punjab Agricultural University, told The Telegraph that in well-irrigated states like Punjab, the link between monsoon rainfall and agricultural output can be counterintuitive.
UK's already-strained infrastructure
The UK has already experienced a summer of extreme heat and drought. The country recorded its hottest day of the year in mid-August, with temperatures reaching 38.1°C in west London. The heatwaves in May and June led to an estimated 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales, as reported by My London.
The extreme weather has put pressure on infrastructure, including the railway network. Two trains derailed within 24 hours during the UK's fifth heatwave in August, which Network Rail said "presented exceptional challenges to the railway". Xueyu Geng, a professor of ground engineering at the University of Warwick, told The Guardian that Britain's railways were not designed for hot weather, and that adaptation is needed.
The UK has also seen drought conditions, with 71.3% of England and all of Wales in drought, and the driest July in 190 years, according to The Guardian.
How each outlet told it
Al Jazeera
Framing: Headline emphasizes intensity and duration ('most intense for over a century'), leaves out global or regional specifics. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'unprecedented', 'heighten extreme weather risks'.
Facts Included:
Met Office forecast on Friday that El Niño will be most intense in over a century.
Predicted sea surface temperature rise of more than 3°C (5.4F).
Adam Scaife: 'We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.'
Scaife: 'then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.'
El Niño typically 1-2°C, but 2026 forecast over 3°C.
Scaife told BBC: three-degree rise 'unheard-of in modern climate records.'
El Niño triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Wildfires burned over 200,000 hectares in Indonesia and southwestern Europe, displacing at least 325,000 in Spain and France.
Met Office said wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe including UK.
Strong effects in Tropics: severe droughts in South America and West Pacific.
UK's hottest day in mid-August: 38.1C (100.5F) in west London.
Met Office warned event 'very likely' to make 2027 hottest year on record, combined with human-induced climate change.
Framing: Headline emphasizes intensity and duration ('most intense for over a century'), leaves out global or regional specifics. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'unprecedented', 'heighten extreme weather risks'.
Facts Included:
Met Office forecast on Friday that El Niño will be most intense in over a century.
Predicted sea surface temperature rise of more than 3°C (5.4F).
Adam Scaife: 'We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.'
Scaife: 'then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.'
El Niño typically 1-2°C, but 2026 forecast over 3°C.
Scaife told BBC: three-degree rise 'unheard-of in modern climate records.'
El Niño triggered by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in central and eastern tropical Pacific.
Wildfires burned over 200,000 hectares in Indonesia and southwestern Europe, displacing at least 325,000 in Spain and France.
Met Office said wetter, stormier conditions in northwestern Europe including UK.
Strong effects in Tropics: severe droughts in South America and West Pacific.
UK's hottest day in mid-August: 38.1C (100.5F) in west London.
Met Office warned event 'very likely' to make 2027 hottest year on record, combined with human-induced climate change.
Framing: Headline emphasizes strength and record, but omits regional consequences. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'strongest in living memory' and 'unprecedented'.
Facts Included:
El Niño set to be 'strongest in living memory', says Met Office.
Heat released from ocean into atmosphere, lifting global temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns.
El Niño declared when sea surface temperatures in key Pacific area 0.5C or more above average.
Current measurements show well over 2C above normal.
Met Office forecasts temperature anomalies could exceed 3C later this year as El Niño nears peak.
Unprecedented in records back to 1950, probably strongest since 19th century.
Very high temperatures in deeper ocean - around 8C above normal at depth of 100m - could supercharge El Niño.
Dr Zeke Hausfather: 'We have many months to go while this event continues to develop and that's one of the reasons that we have increased confidence that this will be a record-setting event.'
Some climate groups projected even stronger, perhaps 4C above average.
Hausfather: 'It's not beyond the realm of possibility to say this might be the strongest El Niño event in 500 or even 1,000 years.'
Framing: Headline quotes 'an unprecedented event' and focuses on UK Met Office statement, omits regional impacts. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'unheard-of' and 'unprecedented'.
Facts Included:
El Niño weather pattern to be biggest in over a century, warming sea surface temperatures to 'unheard-of' level.
El Niño declared when sea temperatures in tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above baseline.
Adam Scaife told BBC: 'We are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees — that is unheard-of in modern climate records.'
He called it 'an unprecedented event', adding 'I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts'.
Anomalous warmth 'up to nearly two degrees already'.
Strong effects in Tropics: severe droughts in South America and West Pacific.
Temperatures in region currently about 2.6°C above rolling 30-year average, according to Climate Brink dashboard.
Scaife: 'These are not short-term weather forecasts. We're talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here. There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security.'
Expected to cause 'increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time'.
Framing: Headline focuses on strength and duration, omits regional impacts. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'unheard-of' and 'unprecedented'.
Facts Included:
El Nino weather pattern to be biggest in over a century, warming sea surface temperatures to 'unheard-of' level.
El Nino declared when sea temperatures in tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above baseline.
Adam Scaife told BBC: 'We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees – that is unheard-of in modern climate records.'
He called it 'an unprecedented event', adding 'I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.'
Anomalous warmth 'up to nearly two degrees already'.
Strong effects in Tropics: severe droughts in South America and West Pacific.
Temperatures in region currently about 2.6C above rolling 30-year average, according to Climate Brink dashboard.
Scaife: 'These are not short-term weather forecasts. We're talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here. There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security.'
Expected to cause 'increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time'.
Framing: Emphasizes the record strength of El Niño and its double impact on India's crops; headline leaves out the specifics of UK effects. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'record-strength', 'unprecedented', 'double crop hit'.
Facts Included:
Met Office forecast on Friday that El Niño could be most powerful in over a century, with Pacific waters heating more than 3°C above normal.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at Met Office, said 'We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees -- that is unheard of in modern climate records.'
2015-16 El Niño peaked at roughly 3°C anomaly; Climate Brink dashboard projects 3.9°C anomaly this November.
Pacific sea-surface temperatures currently about 2.6°C above rolling 30-year average.
Scaife: 'I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.'
Nick Dunstone said 2027 'very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record.'
2024 global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Met Office said El Niño already causing well below normal rainfall in India; IMD projects full season at 90% of long-period average, lowest in 11 years.
OP Sreejith (IMD) said high possibility 2027 beats 2024 globally, but Indian region may not cross 2024 record; depends on 2027 monsoon and ENSO conditions.
Raghu Murtugudde (University of Maryland, IIT-Kanpur) said impact could extend through Rabi season into 2027; government taking safeguards like action on edible oil and sugar.
Murtugudde skeptical of significant global action, citing Europe's energy supply and west Asia crisis.
Term El Niño coined by Peruvian and Ecuadoran fishermen in 19th century.
Framing: Headline focuses on Ireland weather warnings, omits global context. — Concerned, with phrases like 'fears grow' and 'unprecedented'.
Facts Included:
Met Eireann warn of 'intense' storms and rain due to 'unprecedented' El Nino.
El Nino refers to warm surface waters in Eastern tropical Pacific, first observed in disruption of fish stocks for Peruvian fishermen.
Name from Spanish word for 'boy'; La Niña for 'girl'.
Met Éireann defines El Niño and La Niña shifts.
Weather pattern happens every 2-7 years.
Professor Adam Scaife: 'We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event. I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.'
Increases risk of drought in tropics, southern Africa, north-east Australia; north-western Europe including Ireland likely wetter and stormier in autumn/early winter.
Met Eireann climatologist Paul Moore: sea surface temperatures well above average, increases moisture content, can increase intensity of rainfall events.
NOAA placed 25% probability on El Niño intensifying into super El Niño by autumn or early winter; super El Niño confirmed when ocean temperature anomalies climb to at least 2°C above normal.
Detailed Met Eireann National Outlook for Sunday, Monday, Tuesday (dates 23-25).
Framing: Headline focuses on India's monsoon deficit and future hot summer, citing 'Report - What scientists say', but omits the broader global context. — Measured, with phrases like 'could face prolonged disruption' and 'raising concerns'.
Facts Included:
India's monsoon is 13% below normal; 40% of country received at least 20% less rainfall than average.
UK Met Office forecast on Friday that El Niño could be strongest since 19th century, with Pacific temps over 3°C above normal by late 2026 or early 2027.
Adam Scaife: 'I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.'
Madhavan Rajeevan: El Niño will reverse, pendulum-like system.
Roxy Mathew Koll: temperatures could remain high after El Niño weakens.
Jerome Vialard: El Niño events tend to be followed by La Niña; temporary global warming of 0.2-0.3°C on top of 1.4°C human-driven warming.
Rajeevan and Sivananda Pai's 2007 study: rainfall below normal in only 43% of El Niño years.
Rajeevan: 'almost all exceptionally strong El Niño events are associated with large deficits in the monsoon or drought.'
India's monsoon accounts for about 75% of annual rainfall.
Kulwinder Kaur Gill: in well-irrigated states like Punjab, link between monsoon and output can be counterintuitive.
El Niño impacts on farmers depend on location, timing, and irrigation availability.
Framing: Headline focuses on London summers being even hotter, omits mention of El Niño specifically. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'damning verdict' and 'nonstop fires'.
Facts Included:
Heatwaves in May and June led to estimated more than 2,700 excess deaths in England and Wales.
Weather expert Jim Dale of British Weather Services: future summers could be even hotter, 'superseded' by what is to come, down to 'record highs from fossil fuel emissions'.
Dale: 'There's every expectation that not just 2027 summer but 2028 and onwards that more of the same is more likely than not.'
Temperatures hit 38.1C in Kew Gardens last week.
Andy Burnham warned of climate change from West Midlands, after grass fire near Stourbridge Golf Club spread to homes, destroying 19 and damaging 18.
Burnham: 'We have to face up to the changing climate. I think we need a different debate about that. There’s no point denying where we are. We need to face up to it.'
Met Office forecast showers and rain, first spell of widespread rain in areas in need.
Mike Silverstone, deputy chief forecaster: 'As some of these showers could be intense, there is a chance of some surface water flooding as the rain falls on very dry and hard ground.'
UK's fifth heatwave, hottest day recorded in Kew Gardens on Thursday (August 21?) at 38.1C.
Framing: Headline focuses on increased rain and storms for UK, omitting global warming or record-breaking implications. — Measured, with phrases like 'likely to be the strongest' and 'warned'.
Facts Included:
Met Office said El Niño likely strongest for more than 100 years.
Increased rainfall and storms forecast for UK this autumn.
Prof Adam Scaife: typical El Niño 1C, 2C big event; this year 3C, 'largest since the 19th century.'
Scaife on BBC Radio 4: 'We're expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over 3C. That is unheard of in modern climate records … It's up 2C degrees already.'
Patagonia, Argentina likely to experience severe drought.
Impacts: severe droughts in South America and west Pacific; increased rainfall and storminess in UK around November.
Heightened drought risk in southern Africa and north-east Australia.
2027 forecast to be warmest year on record.
Dr Nick Dunstone: 'Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5C above the preindustrial period.'
UK has seen driest July in 190 years; 71.3% England and all Wales in drought.
Reservoir levels fell to 62.6% - 16.3% lower than expected.
Andy Burnham mentioned wet autumn/winter after heatwave, reported to Cobra.
Morecambe recorded 52.5mm rain in last 24 hours.
National Drought Group meeting, moving to weekly meetings.
Framing: Headline focuses on railway preparation for extreme weather, omitting broader climate impacts. — Concerned, with phrases like 'race to prepare' and 'brutal summer'.
Facts Included:
Railway companies preparing for another brutal summer next year due to El Niño.
Two trains derailed within 24 hours during UK's fifth heatwave in August.
Network Rail said derailments presented 'exceptional challenges'.
Xueyu Geng: railway not designed for hot weather, puts stress on system and overhead lines.
Met Office said El Niño likely strongest for more than 100 years.
2024 Network Rail increased five-year spending on climate, earthworks, drainage by five times.
Geng: 'I believe Network Rail has done a great job to maintain our railway network, but we still need to be able to adapt more.'
Examples of hot countries: Spain (0-45C), Saudi Arabia (10-55C), track pre-stressed.
Geng: Britain's railways can handle -10C; need to consider upper boundary.
Scaife: 'We're expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, [with Pacific sea temperatures] peaking at something over 3C. That is unheard of in modern climate records.'
William Powrie: need to look at parts of network with compromised infrastructure, like Salisbury to Exeter line.
Ioannis Koliousis: immediate priority to use warning time; intensify drainage clearance, etc.
Koliousis: distinguish between maintenance and adaptation.
Network Rail spokesperson: warm, wet winter forecast; investing £2.6bn in track maintenance and renewals.
Framing: Headline emphasizes record-breaking and hottest year, but omits regional impacts. — Alarmed, with phrases like 'smash records' and 'unprecedented'.
Facts Included:
Met Office forecast on Friday that El Niño will be biggest in over a century, could make 2027 hottest year globally.
El Niño occurs when warming sea surface temperatures in tropical eastern Pacific trigger worldwide changes.
Adam Scaife told BBC: 'We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees - that is unheard of in modern climate records.'
Pacific water would heat up more than 3°C above norm.
El Niño occurs when water temperatures rise at least 0.5°C above baseline; climate change increases impacts.
Met Office blog: record El Nino 'adding to the stresses of climate change'.
Temperatures in Pacific region currently running about 2.6°C above rolling 30-year average, according to Climate Brink dashboard.
Dashboard projects El Nino to peak at 3.9°C anomaly this November, well above 3°C anomaly detected in 2015.
Scaife: 'We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event.'
If forecast accurate, 2026 'will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences'.
El Nino typically results in drier conditions in southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, northern Brazil; wetter in Horn of Africa, southern US, Peru, Ecuador.
Strong effects in Tropics: severe droughts in South America and West Pacific.
El Nino already causing well below normal rainfall in India.
Increased rainfall and storminess in UK around November.
Nick Dunstone: 2027 'very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record'.
2024 global temperatures exceeded 1.5°C above preindustrial period.
Last year (2025?) was third hottest on record.
Carlo Buontempo (Copernicus) told AFP in January that 2026 could be 'another record-breaking year'.
Term El Nino coined by Peruvian and Ecuadoran fishermen in 19th century.
Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.
Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimThe UK Met Office forecast on Friday that the developing El Niño will be the most powerful in over a century, with Pacific waters expected to heat up more than 3°C above normal.
ClaimAdam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: 'We are expecting the biggest El Nino for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees -- that is unheard of in modern climate records.'
ClaimThe Met Office said the El Niño is already causing well below normal rainfall in India, and the India Meteorological Department projects the full season at 90% of the long-period average, its lowest in 11 years.
ClaimOP Sreejith, scientist at IMD, said there is a high possibility 2027 beats 2024 as the warmest year globally, but for the Indian region average temperature may not cross the 2024 record.
ClaimMurtugudde said he does not foresee significant global action because Europe is suffering from heatwaves, energy supply issues, and the west Asia crisis.
ClaimThe UK Met Office forecast that the El Niño could be the strongest recorded since the 19th century, with Pacific sea surface temperatures possibly rising to more than 3°C above normal by late 2026 or early 2027.
ClaimMadhavan Rajeevan, atmospheric physicist and former secretary of India's earth sciences department, said 'El Niño is part of an oscillatory, pendulum-like system ... it will swing back.'
ClaimRoxy Mathew Koll, climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, said temperatures could remain unusually high for several months even after El Niño weakens.
ClaimJerome Vialard, climate scientist at France's Research Institute for Development, said El Niño events tend to be followed by La Niña and vice versa.
ClaimJerome Vialard said an El Niño event can temporarily increase the planet's average surface temperature by around 0.2°C to 0.3°C, on top of approximately 1.4°C of human-driven global warming.
ClaimRajeevan and D. Sivananda Pai of IMD analysed 125 years of monsoon patterns and found in a 2007 study that rainfall was below normal in only 43% of El Niño years.
ClaimRajeevan said 'almost all exceptionally strong El Niño events are associated with large deficits in the monsoon or drought. And we're seeing significant rainfall deficit this year.'
ClaimKulwinder Kaur Gill, crop scientist at Punjab Agricultural University, said that in well-irrigated states like Punjab and Haryana, the link between monsoon rainfall and agricultural output can be counterintuitive.
ClaimMet Éireann climatologist Paul Moore said sea surface temperatures are well above average, increasing moisture content that can intensify rainfall.
ClaimEl Niño typically results in drier conditions in southeast Asia, Australia, southern Africa, and northern Brazil; wetter in Horn of Africa, southern US, Peru, and Ecuador.
ClaimJim Dale of British Weather Services said future summers could be even hotter, down to record fossil fuel emissions, expecting more of the same through 2027 and beyond.
10 outlets · 12 articles consulted: Al Jazeera, BBC — World, Dawn, France 24 — English, Hindustan Times, Irish Mirror, Livemint, My London, The Guardian — World, The Hindu — World56 claims extractedVersion 6Written 2026-08-23