El Niño one step closer as Pacific transition now fastest in 50 years

Lead

The Pacific Ocean's rapid warming toward El Niño conditions has firmed up odds that Australia will face a warm and dry second half of 2026, according to reporting by ABC Australia. The transition from La Niña to El Niño is occurring at the fastest rate since 1976, with water temperatures in the central Pacific already climbing more than 1 degree Celsius since January.

Meanwhile, The Guardian reports that large parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño takes shape. The World Meteorological Organization has said there is an increasing chance of El Niño developing, a phenomenon that historically increases the chances of hotter and drier conditions for Australia's east.

Coverage Comparison

ABC Australia's coverage emphasizes the potential strength of the event, citing Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) modelling that tips the Niño3.4 index to reach an unprecedented +2.9C in October. The outlet notes this would comfortably set a new record for the oceanic strength of the El Niño signal, but also stresses that a record El Niño does not necessarily translate to record drought or heat, citing previous events showing only a weak relationship between strength and severity of impacts.

The Guardian's coverage focuses on the immediate three-month forecast, reporting that much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June, and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures. The outlet also contextualizes El Niño within broader climate trends, noting that El Niño events tend to push up global temperatures and that climate change has warmed Australia by about 1.5C since 1910.

Key Claims

The Niño3.4 index, a common measure of Pacific Ocean conditions, is currently at +0.23C and could reach the Bureau of Meteorology's El Niño threshold of +0.8C within weeks, according to ABC Australia. However, a formal declaration will not be made until there is clear evidence the atmosphere has responded. This would represent an earlier emergence compared to normal; during the 2023 El Niño, the 0.8C mark was not exceeded until September.

ABC Australia reports that chief of climate prediction at the World Meteorological Organization, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, said climate models are strongly aligned with high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification. The BOM's ACCESS-S model projects the Niño3.4 index soaring to +2.9C in October, a record for the oceanic strength of the El Niño signal.

Historically, nine of the ten driest winter–spring periods on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Niño years, according to ABC Australia. El Niño events typically see drier and warmer weather across northern and eastern Australia, particularly from June to November.

The Guardian quotes climatologist Caitlin Minney of the Bureau of Meteorology, who said that May to July rainfall would likely be below average for much of eastern Australia. The drier conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland, but parts of northern and western Victoria, southern South Australia, and south-west Western Australia could also experience dry conditions.

The Guardian also notes that the bureau is watching conditions in the Indian Ocean, where some models suggest ocean temperatures to Australia's north-west could cool—another phenomenon that can lower the chance of rainfall.

While both outlets report on the likelihood of El Niño, they place different emphasis on the certainty of forecasts. ABC Australia highlights the potential for record strength, while The Guardian notes the Bureau of Meteorology has said there is still disagreement among weather models, though most show sea surface temperatures consistent with El Niño could be in place by July.