El Niño expected to develop in coming months, bringing hotter and drier weather to eastern Australia

Lead

Australia is likely to experience the development of an El Niño climate pattern in the coming months, according to forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology and other agencies. This shift is expected to bring warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the country, particularly in the south, while rainfall is projected to be below average in several regions. The conditions are also raising concerns among fire authorities about an earlier start to the bushfire season in parts of Western Australia and New South Wales.

Coverage comparison

Two Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reports and one from The Guardian — World provide overlapping but distinct perspectives on the impending El Niño and its potential consequences. All three outlets emphasize the likelihood of warmer conditions, though they differ in their focus and tone.

The ABC's coverage highlights the Bureau of Meteorology's winter outlook, which predicts unusually warm weather nationwide, with below-average rainfall in the south-west and south-east. A separate ABC article focuses on the bushfire outlook, quoting fire authorities who warn of an increased risk in Western Australia and New South Wales due to drier and warmer conditions. This piece adopts a more urgent tone, describing the potential for an "earlier start" to the fire season.

The Guardian — World takes a broader view, citing the World Meteorological Organization's assessment of a 90% chance of El Niño developing before November. It places the phenomenon in the context of climate change, suggesting that global warming is reinforcing El Niño's impacts. The Guardian's framing is more alarmist, using language such as "imminent" and describing the combination of El Niño and climate change as a "dangerous double act."

Key claims

• El Niño development: The Bureau of Meteorology and other agencies forecast that El Niño is likely to develop in the coming months, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stating there is a 90% chance of it forming before November. Felicity Gamble, a senior climatologist at the Bureau, said the models are aligning and that a transition to El Niño is expected during winter.

• Warm winter temperatures: The ABC, citing the Bureau of Meteorology, reports that winter is expected to be unusually warm across the entire country. Daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average, a forecast echoed by The Guardian, which notes that El Niño is expected to result in warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the south of Australia.

• Below-average rainfall: According to the ABC, rainfall is expected to be below average in the south-west and south-east, including south-west Western Australia and parts of south-eastern Australia. However, senior climatologist Caitlin Minney noted that the dry signal may emerge later in the season, with no strong indication of unusually dry conditions for June.

• Bushfire risk: Fire authorities, as reported by the ABC, have identified an increased risk of bushfires in parts of Western Australia and New South Wales. The Australian and New Zealand Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) has indicated a higher risk across northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounding areas in Western Australia, as well as central and northern New South Wales.

• Soil moisture deficits: Soil moisture is below average in north-eastern New South Wales, parts of southern Queensland, Tasmania, and Western Australia, according to AFAC's Sandra White. She warned that without significant rain, there is potential for increased fire activity later in the winter.

• Snow season impact: The ABC suggests that the snow season may be affected by the warm and dry conditions, although this point is not elaborated upon in the provided extracts.

• Climate change influence: The Guardian — World states that climate change is reinforcing the impacts of El Niño, a perspective not explicitly mentioned in the ABC reports reviewed.

• Historical context: The Guardian notes that El Niño has been linked with an increased risk of drought, heatwaves, bushfires, and coral bleaching, and that the last El Niño occurred in spring 2023. The Bureau of Meteorology has indicated that a forecast El Niño could be "at least moderate in strength, with the possibility of a strong event."