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El Nino set to be 'strong' as UN warns of heatwaves and floods

The World Meteorological Organization warns that El Nino will rapidly strengthen between July and September, increasing the risk of extreme weather worldwide. Meanwhile, over 1,300 excess deaths have been recorded in Europe amid a heatwave, and India faces a 40% monsoon deficit.

By Tertius News AI Desk 2 outlets · 2 articles Version 1 Coverage Jul 2–3, 2026 Published Aug 15

Lead

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are set to strengthen rapidly into a "strong" event between July and September, fuelling the likelihood of extreme weather across the globe. The UN agency's monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update points towards "a rapid development into a strong El Nino event during July-September," according to a statement carried by RFI.

El Nino, a natural warming cycle that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns.

Coverage Comparison

Two outlets, RFI and The Hindu, have reported on the WMO's forecast, but with notably different regional emphases. RFI focuses on the worldwide scope of the warning, quoting the WMO's language about the phenomenon's rapid strengthening and the need for countries to brace for impact. The Hindu, while also covering the global implications, places greater weight on the impacts already being felt, including record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and the United States, and a mounting monsoon deficit in India.

Both reports agree on the core forecast: the WMO expects a moderate or strong El Nino event, with above-average temperatures likely across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, covering nearly all populated regions outside the polar zones. The Hindu frames this as a driver of both higher global temperatures and an increased risk of extreme weather in 2026, while RFI emphasizes the WMO's caution that countries should prepare for the impact.

Reporting on the European heatwave, The Hindu cites the World Health Organization (WHO) as saying that over 1,300 excess deaths have been recorded in Europe since June 21 in connection with the record-breaking heatwave. RFI's coverage does not include this figure, though its article includes photographs of heatwave-affected regions, including one showing firefighters battling a fire in France and another of a heatwave in New York City.

On India, The Hindu reports that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said rainfall in July — the most important month of the monsoon — will be "below normal" (less than 94% of the usual amount), and that the current monsoon deficit stands at 40%.

Key Claims

The WMO forecasts a rapid development of a strong El Nino event between July and September, as reported by RFI.
The WMO warns that El Nino will increase the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world, as reported by RFI.
Above-average temperatures are expected across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, according to the WMO's forecast as reported by RFI.
The WHO has recorded over 1,300 excess deaths in Europe since June 21 in connection with the heatwave, as reported by The Hindu.
India's monsoon deficit is currently 40%, and July rainfall is expected to be below normal, according to the IMD as reported by The Hindu.
The WMO's climate scientist Alvaro Silva said there is now "much more confidence" that strong El Nino conditions are developing, as reported by RFI.
El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen, with forecasts from global climate centres indicating consistent warming of ocean temperatures, as reported by RFI.

How each outlet told it

RFI — English as of Jul 3, 2026, 1:31 PM UTC

Framing: El Nino warning and global impact — Informative and cautionary

Facts Included:

El Nino development between July and September
Strong El Nino event expected
WMO's warning for countries to prepare
El Nino's impact on global temperatures and weather patterns
Above-average temperatures expected across most land areas

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The Hindu — World as of Jul 2, 2026, 2:31 PM UTC

Framing: El Nino and heatwave impact — Informative and alarming

Facts Included:

Moderate or strong El Nino forecast
Global temperatures and extreme weather risk increase
Over 1,300 excess deaths in Europe since June 21
India's monsoon deficit is 40%
Below normal rainfall in July expected in India
Record-breaking heatwaves in Europe and the US

Read the source article →

What was claimed, and who backed it

Each row is one claim, attributed to the outlet whose wording states it most clearly. Confidence rates how directly the source text states the claim — explicit and unhedged rates high; hedged, pieced-together, or internally inconsistent statements rate lower. It does not measure whether the claim is true. Status counts the distinct outlets we found asserting it — so a single-source claim can still show high confidence, and a multi-source claim can show medium. Every one of those outlets is named beside the status, so you can check the count against the list. For claims extracted before we began storing that list, the row says so: it names the outlet the claim is quoted from and states that we have not recorded which outlets backed it. Outlets wrote at different times, so a figure that evolves — a casualty count, for example — can legitimately differ between rows; check the "as of" time next to each claim's source.

Claim	Confidence	Status
ClaimA moderate or strong El Nino is forecasted, which could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather in 2026.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from The Hindu — World as of Jul 2, 2026, 2:31 PM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimOver 1,300 excess deaths have been recorded in Europe since June 21, 2026, in connection with the record-breaking heatwave.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via The Hindu — World as of Jul 2, 2026, 2:31 PM UTC
ClaimIndia's current monsoon deficit is 40%, and rainfall in July is expected to be below normal.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusMulti-source quoted from The Hindu — World as of Jul 2, 2026, 2:31 PM UTC the outlets behind this status were not recorded for this claim
ClaimEl Nino is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via RFI — English as of Jul 3, 2026, 1:31 PM UTC
ClaimThe World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns countries to prepare for the impact of El Nino, which is expected to increase the likelihood of extreme weather events.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via RFI — English as of Jul 3, 2026, 1:31 PM UTC
ClaimAbove-average temperatures are expected across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north, covering nearly all populated areas outside the polar regions.	ConfidenceHigh	StatusSingle-source via RFI — English as of Jul 3, 2026, 1:31 PM UTC

Transparency & Audit Trail

2 outlets · 2 articles consulted: RFI — English, The Hindu — World 6 claims extracted Version 1 Written 2026-08-15