El Nino returns and could become one of the strongest on record

Lead

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially confirmed the formation of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, with scientists expecting it to grow to historic strength and potentially exacerbate extreme weather across the planet. NOAA's announcement carried a 63% chance that the event would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage of the announcement was widespread, with outlets including ABC Australia, Dawn, France 24 — English, The Guardian — World, Jerusalem Post, and The Hindu — World all reporting the development. Most stories emphasized the potential for El Niño to intensify global warming and its varied regional effects.

Several outlets, such as ABC Australia, France 24 — English, The Guardian — World, and The Hindu — World, reported that El Niño is a natural warming cycle but that human-induced climate change is exacerbating its effects. Dawn similarly framed the story, noting the natural phenomenon's interaction with a warming planet.

The Jerusalem Post offered a distinct angle by also reporting that Israel voted against a UN climate change resolution, a claim carried by a single outlet and not yet independently verified. France 24 — English also featured an interview with Paul Roundy, a professor at the State University of New York at Albany, who said that models and physical arguments suggest the amplitude of El Niño could be as high or higher than any event in the last century.

Key Claims

• El Niño has formed in the Pacific Ocean, as officially confirmed by NOAA. This is reported by ABC Australia, Dawn, France 24 — English, The Guardian — World, Jerusalem Post, The Hindu — World.
• There is a 63% chance that the El Niño will be so intense that it would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record from 1950 onward. This probability appears in reporting from ABC Australia, Dawn, France 24 — English, The Guardian — World, Jerusalem Post, and The Hindu — World.
• The El Niño is expected to grow to historic strength, and meteorologists forecast it could rival or exceed the record event that began in 1997, which caused billions of dollars in damage. This is covered by ABC Australia, The Guardian — World, The Hindu — World, and others.
• El Niño will likely turbocharge extreme weather across the planet, according to experts cited by ABC Australia, The Guardian — World, and The Hindu — World. The Guardian also quoted UN Secretary-General António Guterres as saying the conditions will "pour fuel on the fire of a warming world."
• The effects of El Niño vary by region. For instance, it often dampens Atlantic hurricane activity but increases it in the Pacific. So while the US East and Gulf coasts may get a break, Hawaii and other islands are more in danger. This is detailed in reporting from ABC Australia, France 24 — English, The Guardian — World, and The Hindu — World.
• The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit from El Niño, according to climate scientists cited by several outlets, including The Guardian and The Hindu.
• India faces more intense heat waves due to El Niño, as reported by ABC Australia, The Guardian — World, and The Hindu — World.
• Australia faces drought, wildfires, and heat due to El Niño, according to ABC Australia and The Guardian, among others.
• Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service forecast a very strong El Niño warming weather pattern, as reported by Dawn. Its director, Carlo Buontempo, said the odds strongly favor a moderate to strong event, possibly record-breaking.
• Israel voted against a UN climate change resolution, a claim carried by the Jerusalem Post.

Perspectives

The United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described El Niño as an "urgent climate warning" in a video message. "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world," he said, as quoted by ABC Australia and The Guardian.

Abby Frazier, a climate scientist at Clark University, said the warm, deep waters of an El Niño affect weather patterns by bringing "a lot of extra heat to the surface, fueling a lot of extreme events for a lot of places around the world." She added that especially in the Pacific, "it can get dire very quickly." Her comments were featured in ABC Australia, The Guardian, and The Hindu.

Ken Graham, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, said, "Every El Niño is not the same; each one is unique with its own imprint on our weather." He added that advanced monitoring and improved understanding allow the NWS to better predict and prepare the public for what is to come.

Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift Africa, called the event a "deadly siren" for millions across the globe, as quoted by Dawn.

Paul Roundy, a professor at the State University of New York at Albany, told France 24 — English that models and physical arguments suggest the amplitude of El Niño could be as high or higher than any event in the last century.