El Nino could push temperatures higher, UN warns

UN Weather Agency Forecasts Likely El Niño, Warning of Extreme Weather and Record Heat

The United Nations’ weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), issued an update on Tuesday predicting an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event between June and August of this year, with a near- or above-90% chance of it persisting through November, according to multiple reports. The phenomenon, a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasts between nine and 12 months, the WMO said, and could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather.

In its quarterly El Niño/La Niña update, the WMO said that warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific were driving the development of El Niño conditions, and that forecasts from its global network indicated a pronounced shift toward the phenomenon. The agency predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August, with most forecast models suggesting the event would be “at least moderate — and possibly strong,” although some uncertainty about its peak strength and timing remained.

Global and Regional Impacts

The WMO’s alert, reported by multiple outlets, highlighted the potential for serious disruptions. El Niño is known to bring worldwide changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns. According to the WMO, it can trigger increased rainfall in the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia, while also causing drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. It can also spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The UN agency said the phenomenon could exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall, increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean, and lead to higher prevalence of vector-borne diseases and pressure on food and water systems. Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate extremes more likely, the WMO noted, according to reports.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo was quoted across multiple sources as saying, “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.” She added, “Extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate hazards we face, and an El Niño event could intensify the threat,” warning that “communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits.”

UN Leadership Response

UN Secretary-General António Guterres also weighed in, with most outlets quoting him as saying, “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90 percent certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.” He warned that “impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed,” according to a video statement reported by at least one outlet.

Guterres’ comments underscored the global nature of the threat, with some reports noting that extreme heat alone is already one of the deadliest climate hazards, and that an El Niño event could intensify the risk of heat-related illness and disease spread.

Historical Context and Record Heat

The WMO noted that the most recent El Niño, in 2023–24, contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, with global temperatures around 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average, according to multiple sources. This year’s potential event comes as regions around the world already face extreme heat and drought, including South Asia and parts of Europe.

One outlet (Deutsche Welle) highlighted the particular vulnerability of Europe, noting that the continent is heating at roughly twice the global average, leaving cities, farms, rivers, and health systems increasingly exposed to heatwaves, drought, and flash flooding. The report quoted WMO climate prediction chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia, who pointed to the potential for stronger impacts.

Scientific and Government Preparation

All reports cited the WMO’s data on sea-surface temperatures, which in late April to mid-May were approaching El Niño thresholds in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific, with sub-surface temperatures more than 6 degrees Celsius above average in some areas. The agency’s forecasts indicate a “near or above 90 percent” chance of the phenomenon continuing until at least November if it begins, according to multiple outlets.

While the exact strength and timing of the event remain uncertain, the consensus across reporting is that preparations are necessary. Saulo’s call for readiness was echoed by Guterres, who urged governments and communities to act on the warning. “The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” he said.

As the world watches the Pacific, the potential for a strong El Niño looms, bringing with it the likelihood of record-breaking heat, disrupted rainfall, and heightened risks to health, food, and water security. The WMO’s alert serves as a reminder of the interconnected nature of the global climate system and the need for proactive adaptation measures.