Eisenkot's Yashar ties Netanyahu's Likud at 21 seats as opposition regains Knesset majority - poll

Lead

Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party has tied with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud at 21 seats in a Maariv poll published on Friday, marking the first time an opposition party has caught up to Netanyahu's party this Knesset. The opposition bloc, excluding Arab parties, would hold a majority of 61 seats, while the current government coalition would have only 49 seats.

The poll, reported by the Jerusalem Post, shows the shifting political landscape ahead of national elections that must be held by October 27, with analysts suggesting the vote could be held on October 20.

Coverage Comparison

The Jerusalem Post reported the poll results across multiple articles, highlighting different aspects of the political shift. One report noted that since the start of Operation Roaring Lion, Likud has been on a steady decline, currently polling at only 21 seats, and that the opposition bloc would hold a majority of 61 seats, with the coalition at 49 seats.

Another report from the Jerusalem Post detailed Likud's drop to 22 seats and Yashar's jump to 20 seats, pointing to a three-way race for the largest party among Likud, Together, and Yashar. A more recent article described Yashar tying with Likud at 21 seats apiece, the first time any opposition party has caught Netanyahu this Knesset, and noted that more Israelis now rate Eisenkot over the prime minister as the better fit to lead.

The South China Morning Post reported that Eisenkot's new centrist party has rapidly been gaining popularity in opinion polls and is currently second behind Netanyahu's right-wing Likud. The outlet noted that a recent survey showed a majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to leave office, and that public opinion is critical of the war launched on Iran in late February.

Key Claims

• Party seat projections: The Maariv poll published on Friday shows Yashar at 21 seats, tied with Likud, while Together, led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, has declined to 17 seats, according to a KAN News poll reported by the Jerusalem Post on June 17.

• Opposition majority: The opposition bloc, excluding the Arab parties, would hold a majority of 61 seats, while the current coalition would have only 49 seats, according to a Maariv poll published on June 19.

• Likud's decline: Since the start of Operation Roaring Lion, Likud has lost 7 seats, declining to 21 seats, as reported by the Jerusalem Post. A subsequent poll showed Likud dropping to 22 seats, its lowest figure since August 2025.

• Together's losses: Since the merger between Bennett and Lapid at the end of April, their combined party has lost 10 seats in about two months, declining to just 18 seats, according to a Maariv poll reported on June 26.

• Eisenkot's rise: Yashar has surged by 9 seats since the Bennett-Lapid merger, reaching 21 seats. The Jerusalem Post reported that Eisenkot's team is secular and technocratic, and that he is in talks with Avigdor Liberman and former Likud figures.

• Netanyahu's standing: 63% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should act according to Israel's interests, and 46% say he should continue his legal proceedings, according to a poll reported by the Jerusalem Post.

• US-Iran deal: 55% of respondents oppose the deal between the US and Iran, compared with 18% who support it and 27% who say they don't know, according to a KAN News poll reported on June 17.

• Foreign policy attitudes: The 2026 Foreign Policy Index, conducted by the Mitvim Institute in cooperation with the Friedrich Ebert Foundation and reported by the Jerusalem Post, reveals that nearly two-thirds of opposition voters support a demilitarized Palestinian state, and more than 60% of Together and Yashar voters believe Gaza's reconstruction is an Israeli national interest.

• Election timing: Israelis must elect a new parliament by October 27 at the latest, although the vote was most likely to be held on October 20, as reported by the South China Morning Post.

Perspectives

Eisenkot's supporters

Voters for the opposition right-wing and centrist parties are motivated not merely by opposition to Netanyahu himself, but by opposition to his policies, according to the 2026 Foreign Policy Index. This electorate supports diplomatic initiatives and shows willingness to make far-reaching compromises in pursuit of peace with the Palestinians, including supporting a demilitarized Palestinian state and viewing Gaza's reconstruction as an Israeli national interest.

Netanyahu's coalition

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains the favorite for suitability as prime minister, according to the poll, even as Likud and the coalition bloc are in decline. Netanyahu's declaration that Israel will not withdraw from the security buffer zone in southern Lebanon and the conclusion of his testimony in his trial contributed to a one-seat gain for Likud, halting the party's gradual decline.

Bennett's alliance

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett emphasized his experience and accomplishments as prime minister and education minister when asked whether he would consider taking a backseat to Eisenkot, saying: "I can say that in any case, I will do anything in the world to replace this [government]." The Together party has lost 10 seats in about two months since its formation.