Eight OPEC+ countries’ oil production down by 7.527 mbd in March

Lead

Eight OPEC+ countries that implement voluntary production cuts reduced their combined oil output by about 7.5 million barrels per day in March 2026, according to OPEC figures carried by TASS. One OPEC-linked account put the month-on-month decline at 7.527 million barrels per day, with actual production at 25.201 million bpd against a planned level of 32.078 million bpd, leaving the group 6.877 million bpd below the target that already incorporates voluntary cuts and compensation obligations. A related OPEC summary reported a reduction of 7.593 million bpd and output 7.519 million bpd below the corresponding target, with alliance production excluding Libya, Iran and Venezuela at 29.755 million bpd.

Country detail repeated across those OPEC summaries shows Russia 407,000 bpd below its March quota, Iraq 2.231 million bpd below, the UAE 1.341 million bpd below, Saudi Arabia 2.304 million bpd below, Kuwait 1.367 million bpd below and Oman 12,000 bpd below. Kazakhstan produced 783,000 bpd above plan and Algeria 2,000 bpd above. TASS reporting on the OPEC material attributes a sharp lag for several Middle Eastern members to conflict in the region. Separately, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain together shut in 7.5 million bpd in March because limited flows through the Strait of Hormuz filled storage and constrained exports.

Coverage comparison

Coverage in the available TASS English dispatches draws on OPEC’s own report, the International Energy Agency and the U.S. EIA, and the numerical picture is not identical across those sources. OPEC-centered accounts cluster around a roughly 7.5 million bpd drop for the eight voluntary-cut participants and shortfalls versus target in the 6.9–7.5 million bpd range, with consistent country gaps for Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Oman and an overshoot for Kazakhstan of 783,000 bpd.

The IEA figures reported by TASS describe a steeper fall: oil production by OPEC+ countries in the output-reduction agreement down 8.14 million bpd in March, with the eight countries’ targeted level at 35.98 million bpd and actual output at 28 million bpd—about 7.98 million bpd behind plan. Production by all OPEC+ members fell 8.13 million bpd to 35.24 million bpd in that account. The same IEA summary gives different country deviations, including Kazakhstan 930,000 bpd above target and Oman 40,000 bpd above target, larger or differently signed gaps for Iraq, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Algeria, and Russia up 290,000 bpd on the month but still 610,000 bpd below target.

EIA material, also relayed by TASS, frames the story as a Middle East shut-in of 7.5 million bpd in March and projects shut-ins rising to 9.1 million bpd in April before easing to 6.7 million bpd in May if the conflict does not extend past April and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes, with a return toward pre-conflict levels later in 2026. A further TASS dispatch on compensation schedules states that Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan and Oman filed updated plans for March–June 2026 totaling between 789,000 bpd and 1.214 million bpd of compensation per month, with Kazakhstan the largest contributor, March compensation at 1.214 million bpd and April at 789,000 bpd, and cumulative compensation due of 3.797 million bpd by July 2026. A Russia-focused OPEC extract says Russian crude edged up 3,000 bpd month-on-month to 9.167 million bpd, remaining 407,000 bpd under a 9.574 million bpd planned level, with no compensation for overproduction required that month.

Disagreement therefore centers on the exact size of the March decline and target gap (OPEC near 7.5 million bpd reduced and roughly 6.9–7.5 million bpd below plan versus IEA near 8.1 million bpd reduced and about 8 million bpd below plan for the eight), on individual country over/under-production (especially Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia), and on how far the drop is ascribed to voluntary cuts and compensation mechanics versus conflict-related shut-ins.

Key claims

• OPEC reporting cited by TASS: eight voluntary-cut OPEC+ countries’ output fell 7.527 million bpd in March to 25.201 million bpd, 6.877 million bpd below a 32.078 million bpd plan (multi-source OPEC summaries also cite a 7.593 million bpd reduction and 7.519 million bpd below target).
• Same OPEC line: Russia −407,000 bpd versus quota; Iraq −2.231 million; UAE −1.341 million; Saudi Arabia −2.304 million; Kuwait −1.367 million; Oman −12,000; Kazakhstan +783,000; Algeria +2,000 bpd.
• TASS on OPEC: planned March cut versus February included an extra 487,000 bpd of compensation obligations; eight countries had agreed in November 2025 to suspend further output increases in the first quarter of 2026.
• IEA via TASS: agreement countries’ production down 8.14 million bpd; eight-country target 35.98 million bpd versus 28 million bpd actual (~7.98 million bpd below plan); all OPEC+ down 8.13 million bpd to 35.24 million bpd.
• IEA via TASS: Kazakhstan +930,000 bpd versus target; Oman +40,000; other country gaps differ from the OPEC table (e.g., Russia +290,000 bpd month-on-month but −610,000 versus target).
• EIA via TASS: 7.5 million bpd shut in during March in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar and Bahrain; shut-ins seen at 9.1 million bpd in April and 6.7 million bpd in May under an assumption the conflict does not last past April.
• Compensation plans via TASS: March–June 2026 monthly compensation 1.214 million, 789,000, 895,000 and 899,000 bpd respectively; Kazakhstan the largest share; 3.797 million bpd to be compensated by July 2026.
• OPEC via TASS on Russia: March output 9.167 million bpd, up 3,000 bpd month-on-month, 407,000 bpd below a 9.574 million bpd target; no overproduction compensation required for March.

Perspectives

OPEC framework (voluntary cuts and compensations). OPEC’s published arithmetic, as relayed by TASS, presents March as a large undershoot relative to quotas that already embed voluntary cuts and payback for earlier overproduction. The eight countries were scheduled to deepen compensation obligations by 487,000 bpd in March, and updated payback schedules from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan and Oman stretch through June 2026. In this framing, Kazakhstan’s overshoot is the standout compliance issue on the upside, while Russia’s modest month-on-month increase still left it under target without a March compensation bill. Undershooting Middle East producers still count as delivering tighter physical supply relative to the formal ceiling.

Conflict and logistics (EIA). The EIA assessment emphasizes physical shut-ins tied to constrained Strait of Hormuz loadings and rising onshore stocks in export-dependent producers, totaling 7.5 million bpd in March across six Gulf producers and potentially 9.1 million bpd in April. That view treats the March collapse as largely involuntary and reversible if hostilities ease after April, with shut-ins expected to recede toward 6.7 million bpd in May and toward pre-conflict rates later in 2026. It aligns in scale with OPEC’s reported drop but assigns causality primarily to security and shipping limits rather than to the voluntary-cut calendar alone.

IEA independent balance. The IEA’s larger March decline and different country residuals imply an even wider gap versus its reference targets and a slightly different distribution of over- and under-production, including a higher Kazakhstan overshoot and an Oman overshoot, versus OPEC’s small Oman undershoot. Russia appears weaker versus the IEA target than in the OPEC table despite a reported monthly increase. Read together with OPEC and EIA, the IEA numbers reinforce that March supply from the agreement group was sharply lower, while illustrating ongoing uncertainty about exact baselines, who is compensating, and how much of the loss is policy-driven versus disruption-driven.

Russian production detail. A dedicated OPEC extract stresses that Russian crude ticked up only 3,000 bpd to 9.167 million bpd and remained 407,000 bpd under the compensation-adjusted target, with no March payback obligation—positioning Russia as inside its ceiling during a month when several Gulf allies were far below theirs for reasons OPEC links to regional conflict.

Across these angles, sources agree that March brought a multi-million-barrel daily drop in output from core OPEC+ producers and that Gulf supply was heavily affected. They diverge on the precise barrel counts, on national compliance signs for Kazakhstan, Oman and Russia, and on whether the dominant story is scheduled restraint and compensation or war-related shut-ins—and on how quickly supply might return if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes.