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Russia's Economic Development Ministry Forecasts Imports at $308.7 bln in 2026
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development has published revised forecasts for imports and the dollar exchange rate for 2026-2029. Imports are expected to grow from $308.7 bln in 2026 to $353.3 bln in 2029, while the ruble is projected to weaken gradually. The ministry attributes the revised exchange rate forecast to a stronger trade balance and potentially tighter monetary policy.
Russia's Ministry of Economic Development expects imports to total $308.7 billion in 2026, according to the scenario conditions of the country's socio-economic development forecast for 2027 and the planning period of 2028-2029. The document, reviewed by the government and published on the ministry's website, also outlines a revised path for the dollar exchange rate over the next four years.
Coverage Comparison
TASS, the Russian state news agency, reported the ministry's updated projections in two separate articles, both published on May 12. One article focuses on the import and trade balance figures, while the other details the revised exchange rate forecast. Both reports draw on the same official ministry document and attribute the information to the ministry's materials and a ministry representative's comments to reporters.
The import forecast article quotes the ministry's document stating that imports amounted to $305 billion in 2025 and are expected to rise to $308.7 billion in 2026, $322.1 billion in 2027, and then $336.9 billion and $353.3 billion in 2028 and 2029, respectively.
The exchange rate article reports that the ministry has revised its forecast for the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2026 downward to 81.5 rubles from the previous 92.2 rubles. The forecast for 2027 is set at 87.4 rubles, with expectations of 92 rubles and 96 rubles for 2028 and 2029. According to the ministry's materials, the average annual dollar exchange rate in 2025 was 83.4 rubles.
Both articles note that the forecast document was reviewed by the government and published on the ministry's website, and both present the figures without commentary or editorial analysis.
Key Claims
Imports are projected at $308.7 billion in 2026, $322.1 billion in 2027, $336.9 billion in 2028, and $353.3 billion in 2029, as reported by TASS, citing the ministry's document.
In 2025, imports amounted to $305 billion, according to the same source.
The trade balance is forecast at $133.6 billion in 2026, $102.6 billion in 2027, $108.8 billion in 2028, and $111.1 billion in 2029, as stated in the ministry's document.
The average annual dollar exchange rate is expected to be 81.5 rubles in 2026, 87.4 rubles in 2027, 92 rubles in 2028, and 96 rubles in 2029, according to the ministry's revised forecast.
The average annual dollar exchange rate in 2025 was 83.4 rubles, as reported in the ministry's materials.
A ministry representative told reporters that the exchange rate forecast reflects a trajectory toward a weaker ruble, but milder than previously expected. The representative attributed the revision to a stronger trade balance in 2026, driven by oil prices, and the possibility of tighter monetary policy than initially assumed.
The revised exchange rate forecast represents a notable shift from the previous projection, with the 2026 rate now set at 81.5 rubles compared to the earlier 92.2 rubles. This adjustment suggests the ministry now expects a more gradual depreciation of the ruble over the forecast period.
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Claim
Confidence
Status
ClaimRussia's Ministry of Economic Development revised forecast for average annual dollar exchange rate. The forecast for 2026 is 81.5 rubles, for 2027 is 87.4 rubles, for 2028 is 92 rubles, and for 2029 is 96 rubles.