Doubts about Trump strain Southeast Asia’s US-China balancing act

Lead

Southeast Asia's longstanding balancing act between Washington and Beijing is showing new strain, with a majority of respondents in an annual regional survey now favoring China as a strategic partner over the United States, according to findings by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Analysts attribute the shift to recent geopolitical and trade uncertainties stemming from US policies, but caution against viewing regional sentiment as a zero-sum contest between the superpowers.

Coverage Comparison

The survey, published this year, polled 2,008 respondents across all 11 ASEAN member states, including private sector representatives, researchers, and policymakers. Conducted from January 5 to February 20, the survey found that 52% of respondents would choose China as a strategic partner if forced to align, while 48% preferred the US. This reverses last year's results, when 52.3% favored Washington and 47.7% preferred Beijing.

The findings were reported by the South China Morning Post, which highlighted both the statistical shift and the broader regional context. Analysts cited by the newspaper noted that ASEAN states are increasingly seeking to diversify partnerships in a multipolar world rather than firmly aligning with either power.

Key Claims

• China-US preference gap narrows to 4 points: This year's survey shows China leading the US by just 4 percentage points, a narrow margin given the sample size. The South China Morning Post reported that analysts interpret this as a sign of wavering confidence in US leadership under President Trump, particularly amid new trade and geopolitical uncertainties.

• Top regional challenges are no longer purely geopolitical: Climate change and extreme weather events rank as the region's top concern, cited by 60% of respondents, up from 55.3% last year. The survey also flags intensifying economic tensions between major powers (51.7%) and domestic political instability (46.1%) as significant challenges.

• Avoiding sides remains the default: Despite the preference shift, analysts emphasize that Southeast Asian countries continue to prefer not to take sides between the US and China. The survey suggests that this non-aligned stance is increasingly difficult to maintain as pressures mount on multiple fronts.

Perspectives

ASEAN states' perspective: Southeast Asian governments have long pursued a policy of engaging both major powers, seeking economic benefits from China and security guarantees from the US. This year's survey results reflect a growing unease with US unpredictability but do not signal an outright alignment with Beijing. Respondents' top concern about climate change underscores that non-traditional security threats are now competing for attention alongside the superpower rivalry.

Analysts' view: The singling out of China as the preferred partner, if forced, marks a notable shift but should not be read as a decisive geopolitical realignment. Analysts stress that ASEAN is looking to diversify in a multipolar world, and that the preference could be driven by immediate economic considerations rather than long-term strategic choice.

China's stance: Beijing has consistently wooed Southeast Asia through trade, infrastructure investment, and pandemic diplomacy. The survey's outcome could be seen as a validation of China's efforts, though officials in Beijing have been cautious not to claim a zero-sum victory over Washington.

US perspective: Washington has traditionally relied on its security alliances and economic partnerships in the region. The declining preference could be a warning sign, as US policy under President Trump has at times been seen as transactional and less predictable. The survey was conducted after Trump announced plans to control Venezuela's oil sales, a move that may have influenced perceptions of US global leadership.

Regional outlook: Even as the survey highlights this shift, Southeast Asian leaders continue to emphasize their desire to avoid being forced to choose. The challenge, as the survey makes clear, is that a more contested geostrategic environment is making neutrality increasingly difficult to sustain. Climate change, energy security, and economic tensions are likely to shape regional engagement with both superpowers in the coming years.