A Surprise Victory for the Progressive Wing

Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, a self-described democratic socialist and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated Alex Vindman in Tuesday’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate—an outcome that multiple news outlets described as a major upset. With nearly all ballots counted, Nixon took roughly 56 percent of the vote to Vindman’s 44 percent, according to the Associated Press, which called the race at 8 p.m. ET.

The result is a blow to the party establishment, which had recruited Vindman—a retired Army lieutenant colonel and former National Security Council staffer—into the race and backed him with significant financial support. Vindman had raised more than $16 million, while Nixon raised just shy of $1 million, a gap that several outlets noted was about 16 to 1. Reports by Florida Politics cited in The Guardian and The News International put Vindman’s fundraising at $16.3 million and Nixon’s at $975,000, while other outlets rounded to roughly $16 million or $16.2 million.

Nixon, who recently joined the DSA, ran as a populist, campaigning on universal healthcare, childcare, and opposition to the war in Gaza. She also drew contrast with Vindman, whom she cast as a Washington establishment pick. “Floridians don’t want the establishment in Washington DC deciding who their Democratic nominee and US senator is going to be,” Nixon told the Tampa Bay Times.

Vindman’s Background and Concession

Vindman gained national prominence during President Donald Trump’s first impeachment, testifying about Trump’s 2019 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. His twin brother is Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman of Virginia. Vindman moved to Florida in 2023 and was recruited by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, as reported by The American Conservative.

After the vote, Vindman conceded and pledged to support Nixon, saying she “ran a strong campaign” and that he would stand by her side against Moody. The News International also noted Vindman’s statement.

The November Matchup

Nixon will face Republican incumbent Ashley Moody, who served six years as Florida’s attorney general before being appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to replace Marco Rubio, who resigned to become secretary of state. Moody easily won her primary, taking 80 percent of the vote against three challengers. The winner in November will complete the remaining two years of Rubio’s term.

Nixon’s victory at once prompted speculation about Democratic prospects in a state that has shifted right since 2016. Democrats have not held a Florida U.S. Senate seat since 2019. Election forecasters and betting markets strongly favor Moody in November. The Cook Political Report and metions by the Crystal Ball rated the race as safely or likely Republican.

Perspectives

Nixon — a grassroots win, overcoming a huge financial disadvantage. She framed her primary as a rejection of the establishment: “We have proved that everyday people are more powerful than corporations and billionaires…We were outspent 16 to 1, and we won,” she told supporters.

Working Families Party: The Southeast regional director, Britney Whaley, said the victory is a “wake-up call” for a political establishment that believes a populist message cannot win in the South.

Vindman — despite the loss, he threw his support behind Nixon and stressed his own story as a refugee who served his country.

Republicans — they see bright for the general, in a state Trump himself has embraced, right the party has narrowed. Moody’s campaign is set to highlight a contrast between her record as attorney general and Nixon’s progressive politics.