Cubs and Diamondbacks Meet in Crucial NL Series

The Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks begin a three-game series Monday at Chase Field in Phoenix, with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET. The Cubs enter with a 75-56 record, sitting second in the NL Central, while the Diamondbacks are 69-62 and trail the San Diego Padres by two games for the final NL Wild Card spot, as reported by The Arizona Republic.

According to Sports Illustrated, the Cubs hold a six-game cushion over Arizona in the wild card standings and a two-game advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies for the top wild card position. The Cubs have won the season series against Arizona so far, leading 3-0 entering this matchup.

Cubs Riding High After Offensive Explosion

Chicago comes into the series fresh off a dominant 19-2 victory over the Seattle Mariners on Sunday, as detailed by The Arizona Republic. Left fielder Ian Happ and second baseman Pedro Ramirez each drove in five runs. The Cubs had dropped the first two games of that series before the blowout win.

The Cubs are 13-9 in August and lead the wild card race. Their offense has been among the best in baseball, ranking first in MLB in wRC+, OPS, and runs scored, according to Sports Illustrated. The publication also notes that outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has been especially hot, with five home runs over the last week and 10 in the last 28 days, along with a season OPS of .938 and the best WAR in MLB at 8.1.

Diamondbacks Looking to Reverse Recent Slide

Arizona took two of three from the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend, including a 5-3 win on Sunday, as reported by The Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks have scored at least five runs in four consecutive contests, but their overall form has been uneven. Sports Illustrated notes that Arizona has gone 5-5 in its last 10 games, a stretch that has allowed the Padres to move ahead of them in the NL West and wild card standings.

Probable Pitchers: Gausman vs. Kelly

Monday's projected starters are right-handers Kevin Gausman for the Cubs and Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks, according to The Arizona Republic.

Gausman, acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline, is 6-11 with a 4.58 ERA this season. He has a 1.30 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 143 1/3 innings. In his last start, he took a no-decision, allowing three earned runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Chicago White Sox. Gausman has a career 7-2 record and 3.20 ERA against Arizona, but his 2026 road splits are a concern, with a 5.48 ERA away from home. Sports Illustrated adds that Gausman has a 6.19 ERA in three starts with the Cubs.

Kelly is 8-11 with a 5.37 ERA in 24 starts. He has a 1.52 WHIP and has struggled at home with a 6.24 ERA. In his last outing, he allowed six earned runs in four innings in a loss to the Boston Red Sox. Kelly's career numbers against the Cubs are better, with a 3-2 record and 4.07 ERA in nine starts, but Sports Illustrated reports that he has surrendered 26 home runs in 23 appearances and ranks in the first percentile in expected ERA and expected batting average against.

Betting Odds and Prediction

According to BetMGM odds cited by The Arizona Republic, the Cubs are -145 moneyline favorites, while the Diamondbacks are +118 underdogs. The run line has the Cubs at -1.5 (+120) and the Diamondbacks at +1.5 (-145), with a total of 9 (Over -120, Under +100). The article's expert prediction favors the Cubs 6-4, leaning on the Cubs' offense and Kelly's home struggles.

Sports Illustrated also lists the Cubs as favorites at -144 on the moneyline, with a run line of -1.5 (+118) and a total of 9. The outlet's prediction is a Cubs moneyline bet, citing the Diamondbacks' weaker offense (20th in wRC+) and Gausman's ability to survive shaky outings.

Game Two Outlook

Looking ahead, The Fayetteville Observer reports that Tuesday's second game will feature right-hander Clay Holmes for the Cubs against right-hander Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. Holmes is 5-6 with a 2.49 ERA in his first season as a starter, while Pfaadt is 7-1 with a 3.39 ERA and has posted a 1.81 ERA over his last seven starts. The moneyline for Tuesday is currently even at -110 for both teams, with a total of 8.5. The Fayetteville Observer's prediction is a Diamondbacks win 4-3.