Could oil hit $200 a barrel? Analysts no longer think it’s far-fetched

Lead

Less than three weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, oil markets are grappling with the possibility of crude prices reaching levels once considered unthinkable. According to Al Jazeera, analysts who initially warned that the war could push prices above $100 a barrel are now seriously considering the prospect of Brent crude surpassing $150 or even $200. Yet a report from Russia's TASS news agency, citing Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera, paints a contrasting picture: oil prices have fallen below $100 amid optimism that the conflict may soon end, thanks to Chinese diplomatic efforts and a suspension of sanctions on Russian oil.

Coverage comparison

The two reports offer sharply divergent views of the same conflict and its market impact. Al Jazeera's coverage, focused on the Middle East and the war's direct effects, emphasizes supply disruptions and the risk of a prolonged crisis. TASS, by contrast, highlights global market optimism and the potential for a ceasefire, attributing the positive trend to China's mediation and the easing of sanctions on Russian oil.

While Al Jazeera reports that Brent crude hit nearly $120 on March 9 and has not dropped below $100 since March 13, TASS states that oil prices fell below $100 per barrel. The discrepancy may reflect different timeframes or reporting dates, but the two sources clearly diverge on the trajectory of prices. Al Jazeera also reports that the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, while TASS mentions expectations of its reopening and notes that Iran has allowed vessels from friendly countries to pass.

Key claims

• US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Both sources agree on this starting point, with TASS adding that major Iranian cities, including Tehran, came under strikes and that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched retaliatory attacks on Israel and US military facilities in several Gulf countries.
• Oil prices have risen sharply. Al Jazeera reports that Brent crude hit nearly $120 on March 9 and has remained above $100 since March 13. The same source notes that benchmark Middle Eastern crudes like Oman and Dubai have already crossed the $150 threshold.
• Oil prices may surpass $150 or $200. This forecast, attributed to analysts cited by Al Jazeera, is not confirmed by TASS, which instead reports a decline below $100.
• Israeli strike on Iran's South Pars gasfield on March 18. Al Jazeera reports this strike, which it says prompted Iranian attacks on oil and gas facilities in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This claim appears only in Al Jazeera's coverage.
• Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Al Jazeera states that Iran declared the strait closed early in the conflict and that traffic has all but stopped. TASS reports that Iran closed the strait to vessels linked to the US, Israel, and countries supporting the aggression, but also notes that on March 25, Iran's foreign minister said vessels from friendly countries, including Russia, India, Iraq, China, and Pakistan, were allowed to pass.
• Countries are releasing 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles. This figure appears only in Al Jazeera's report.
• Global market faces a daily shortfall of about 10 million barrels. This estimate is also exclusive to Al Jazeera.
• China is making diplomatic efforts to restore shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. TASS attributes this to Corriere della Sera, which cites the possibility of a ceasefire scenario through Chinese mediation.
• Sanctions on Russian oil have been suspended. TASS reports this as a factor contributing to market optimism, but no other source confirms it.
• Asian countries are purchasing oil from Russia. TASS mentions this as a trend that changed the dynamics on Asian trading floors.
• Gas prices have declined noticeably. TASS reports this, citing Corriere della Sera.

Perspectives

Al Jazeera (Middle East focus): The conflict's direct impact on oil infrastructure and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are central. The report emphasizes supply disruptions and the potential for prices to soar, quoting analysts who see $200 as "within sight." It also notes that US President Donald Trump has failed to attract international support for a naval convoy to reopen the strait.

TASS (Russian state agency): The report highlights positive market signals and diplomatic efforts, particularly China's role in mediating a ceasefire. It also points to the suspension of sanctions on Russian oil and Asian purchases of Russian crude as stabilizing factors. This perspective aligns with Russian interests in seeing sanctions lifted and may reflect an optimistic outlook that is not shared by all observers.

Conclusion

The two reports illustrate the uncertainty gripping oil markets. While Al Jazeera's sources warn of a prolonged crisis and prices above $150, TASS's sources see signs of de-escalation and falling prices. The truth may lie somewhere in between, but for now, the market remains hostage to events in the Gulf. As analysts note, the key variable is the Strait of Hormuz: if it remains closed, prices could climb further; if it reopens, the current rally may fade. Until then, the $200 question remains open.