Could Iran war trigger a hunger crisis?

Lead

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy and agricultural trade, has become the focus of mounting concern as disruptions linked to the conflict with Iran threaten to drive up food and fertiliser costs and worsen global hunger. The United Nations has warned that if fertilisers cannot pass through the strait within weeks, the world could face severe food shortages.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from Al Jazeera and the South China Morning Post paint a consistent picture of a fragile global food system under stress. Al Jazeera emphasises the UN's warnings, noting that food prices are already at a three-year high and that aid agencies fear prolonged disruption could push tens of millions more into hunger. The South China Morning Post, in two separate analyses, details the collapse of shipping through the strait and its disproportionate impact on Asia, which relies heavily on Gulf fertiliser exports and energy imports. Both outlets attribute the crisis to US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began in February, though Al Jazeera frames it as a consequence of the conflict while the Post focuses on the regional and global supply chain breakdown.

Key Claims

• The Strait of Hormuz has been under blockade since the start of joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February, according to the South China Morning Post, and shipping through the strait collapsed following those strikes, as reported by the same outlet.
• The UN warns that disruptions in the strait could drive up food and fertiliser costs and worsen global hunger, per Al Jazeera. The UN also suggests that if fertilisers cannot pass through within weeks, the world could face mass starvation.
• Food prices are already at a three-year high, and fertiliser costs have rocketed, according to Al Jazeera.
• The strait accounts for 20 to 45 per cent of global traffic in essential agricultural inputs, as stated by Viorel Gutu, an assistant director general of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in an interview with the South China Morning Post.
• Asia is heavily exposed: it normally takes 35 per cent of the Gulf's urea exports and 64% of its ammonia, according to the Post.
• Prolonged disruption could push 45 million more people into food insecurity, with Asia seeing the largest regional increase at 24%, as reported by the Post.
• China, however, says its domestic grain and oilseed yields will increase this year, according to the Post, citing its advanced crop forecast system.

Perspectives

United Nations and Aid Agencies

The UN has warned of dire consequences if shipping disruptions persist, with potential for mass starvation. Food prices are already elevated, and fertiliser costs are soaring. Al Jazeera reports that aid agencies fear prolonged disruption could push tens of millions more into hunger.

Asia's Exposure and China's Cushion

Asia is heavily dependent on Gulf fertilisers and energy, making it particularly vulnerable. The South China Morning Post notes that fuel, freight, and fertiliser costs are rising sharply, with skyrocketing insurance premiums. However, China is expected to increase domestic yields of grains and oilseed, offering some cushion amid the global crisis.

Expert Perspective

Viorel Gutu of the FAO points out the strait's critical role in global agricultural inputs, noting that many countries are already experiencing the shock through high input costs and low availability.

Perspectives

UN and international bodies: Emphasize the severity of the crisis, calling for urgent action to prevent mass starvation. They highlight the global scope, noting that food prices are already at three-year highs.

Asia-Pacific focus: Concentrate on the regional impact, with the South China Morning Post detailing how Asia is hardest hit due to its reliance on Gulf fertilisers and energy. They also note China's relative resilience.

Conflict-related: Both outlets attribute the crisis to the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, which led to the strait's blockade. The causal chain is clear: conflict disrupts shipping, which inflates costs and threatens food production.

This article is based on reporting from Al Jazeera and the South China Morning Post. Claims have not been independently verified.