Corn rockets to 3-year high as traders eye lower U.S. production

Corn prices rally to three-year high

Chicago corn futures shot to a three-year high on Monday, after a tour by analysts of U.S. farm regions last week found crops in worse condition than many expected, as reported by Livemint. The most-traded corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade was up 2% at $5.18-3/4 a bushel at 0038 GMT, after earlier reaching $5.20, the highest since August 2023. Corn is now up roughly 12% so far this month.

Barchart reported that corn futures faded from early session highs but ended Monday with gains of 3 to 7 ¾ cents across most contracts. September 26 Corn closed at $4.91 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents; December 26 Corn at $5.15 1/2, up 7 cents; and March 27 Corn at $5.30 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was up 7 3/4 cents at $4.63.

Pro Farmer tour projects smaller corn crop

The rally followed the annual Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which sent more than 100 scouts across seven major Corn Belt states—Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, South Dakota, Ohio, and Minnesota—representing roughly 70% of U.S. corn and soybean production, according to Barchart. On Friday afternoon, Pro Farmer said the tour data pointed to a national corn crop of 15.344 billion bushels on an average yield of 173.2 bushels per acre, compared with USDA's August 12 forecasts of 16.013 billion bushels and 180.7 bushels per acre. That implies a corn crop 669 million bushels smaller than the USDA's August supply and demand report, the widest split in six years, as reported by Barchart.

Pro Farmer economist Lane Akre described the 2026 corn crop as "Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts," according to Barchart. The tour attributed the lower production to a series of small adverse weather events: a cold snap after record-fast planting hurt emergence, a wet June stunted growth, and heat and dryness after the solstice pushed pollination too fast, causing tip-back and blank stalks.

Jim Wiesemeyer of Wiesemeyer's Perspectives said "the ear-length data is the tell," as reported by Barchart. Pro Farmer lead data analyst Emily Carolan noted that 7-inch ears are a consistent threshold for big yields, and only six of 33 districts averaged 7 inches or better. Indiana grain length fell 3.9% from last year's tour and Illinois 4.8%, with Illinois kernel counts down 2.3%, and Nebraska's ear count was the lowest since 2013. Scouts found ankle-deep mud in Ohio this year, with nitrogen deficiency visible in Ohio and Illinois, but disease pressure was well below 2025, according to Barchart.

Soybeans: mixed signals

Pro Farmer projected a U.S. soybean crop of 4.572 billion bushels on an average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre, compared with USDA's 4.519 billion bushels and 52.7 bushels per acre—a soybean crop 53 million bushels larger than the USDA's August report, as reported by Barchart. Soybean pod counts fell in six of seven states, with South Dakota down 20.4%, Nebraska down 9.5%, and Ohio down 7.0%. However, Illinois pods were 2.9% above the three-year average, Iowa 5.2% above, and Minnesota 15.4% above.

Despite the tour's findings, November soybeans rose 3 cents to $12.39 1/2 on Friday and were up 47 cents for the week, according to Barchart. On Monday, soybeans were down 0.5% at $12.32-3/4 a bushel, but prices were supported by strong export demand for U.S. beans, as reported by Livemint. Friday saw big daily "flash" USDA export sales: 205,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations, 712,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, and 720,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, all for the 2026-27 marketing year, according to Barchart.

Wheat rises on Black Sea disruptions

Wheat futures also rose, as tit-for-tat attacks by Russia and Ukraine on each other's shipping routes curtailed exports from Black Sea ports, according to Livemint. CBOT wheat climbed 1.1% to $7.07 a bushel, within a whisker of July's two-year high of $7.11-1/4. Wheat is up 11% so far this month. Barchart reported that September soft red winter wheat futures fell 1 1/4 cents to $6.81 1/2 on Friday but were up 6 3/4 cents for the week; September hard red winter wheat lost 6 cents to $7.56 1/4 and was up 2 cents for the week. Reports said grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine have been severely limited by attacks on each other's shipping and grain infrastructure, with Ukraine's grain shipping virtually completely halted, according to Barchart. Weather problems in the U.S. Plains, western Europe, and Australian wheat regions are also price-friendly for wheat futures, Barchart noted.

Market context and other factors

A weaker U.S. dollar index, which hit a 2.5-month low last week, has been helping to boost grain markets, according to Barchart. Large speculators significantly increased their net long positions in CBOT corn in the week to August 18, according to regulatory data cited by Livemint.

Weekly Crop Progress data showed 86% of the U.S. corn crop in the dough stage by August 23, with 45% dented and 6% mature, as reported by Barchart. Condition ratings were down 3% this week at 47% good to excellent, with the Brugler500 index down 5 points to 348. Monday's Export Inspections report showed corn shipments at 1.296 million metric tons (51.03 million bushels) in the week of August 20, down 33.32% from the week prior and 3.16% below the same week last year. Mexico was the largest destination at 387,748 metric tons, with 306,842 metric tons shipped to Japan and 101,360 metric tons to Colombia. The marketing year total is now 82.28 million metric tons (3.239 billion bushels) of corn exports, 25.51% ahead of the same period last year.

In South America, Agrural estimates the 2025/26 second corn crop at 92% harvested as of Thursday, lagging the 98% average, and the first corn crop for 2026/27 at 2% planted, slipping behind the 3.2% pace from last year, according to Barchart. In Europe, crop ratings for French grain maize stabilized after dropping to their lowest on record during an exceptionally hot and dry summer, data from FranceAgriMer showed, as reported by Livemint.

Historical context: Pro Farmer's track record

Barchart noted that Pro Farmer has had a persistent tendency to underestimate the final U.S. corn yield. From 2016 through 2025, Pro Farmer's national corn yield estimate came in below USDA's eventual final yield in nine of ten years, with 2024 the lone exception. Several misses were significant: roughly 9 bushels per acre too low in 2017, nearly 6 bushels too low in 2020, 5.3 bushels too low in both 2022 and 2023, and 3.8 bushels too low in 2025.

Barchart explained that scouts estimate corn using ear population, grain length, kernel rows, and row spacing—an excellent snapshot of the crop in the third week of August, but still a snapshot, as kernel depth and final grain weight aren't completely known yet. Sampling differences also play a role: in Nebraska, roughly 60% of corn is irrigated, but historically only about 40% of the tour's Nebraska samples have been irrigated. For soybeans, scouts count pods in a 3-by-3-foot square rather than estimating yields directly, because seeds per pod and final seed weight are unknown in August. From 2022 to 2025, Pro Farmer's soybean estimate had an average absolute error of about 1.8 bushels per acre, compared with roughly 4.1 bushels for corn, and its 2025 soybean estimate of 53.0 bushels per acre landed exactly on USDA's final figure.

Earlier in August, very wet weather from central and northern Illinois through Ohio caused concerns about disease issues, Barchart reported. The tour's routes are deliberately consistent for comparison, but the sample isn't identical to USDA's eventual nationwide measurement, the outlet noted.