Conflict with Iran turns into 'war of attrition' US cannot win — expert

Lead

The US-Israeli military operation against Iran has devolved into a 'war of attrition' that the United States cannot win, according to University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer. His remarks, made at a Washington-based Arab Center conference and reported by TASS and Al Jazeera, come amid a ceasefire announced by US President Donald Trump on April 7.

Mearsheimer said that the United States faces a situation with no viable exit. "There's no exit option here except admitting defeat. That's the only way Trump can get out of this, is to basically admit defeat," he said, as quoted by TASS.

Coverage Comparison

Coverage of Mearsheimer's comments appears in multiple outlets, with TASS carrying several articles focusing on different aspects of his remarks. Al Jazeera also reported on his broader argument about US and Israeli roles in the Middle East. While all sources attribute the same core claims to Mearsheimer, they vary in emphasis: TASS highlights the operational failure and the impact on US-Europe ties, while Al Jazeera focuses on his characterization of Israel as the 'highly aggressive' party in the region.

Key Claims

Mearsheimer, a prominent international relations scholar, has made several interconnected arguments about the conflict, all of which are attributed to him by the reporting sources.

Operation Has Failed to Achieve Stated Goals — In a separate appearance on The Chris Hedges YouTube Channel, Mearsheimer listed four stated demands of the US-Israeli operation: the complete removal of Iran's nuclear enrichment capability, cessation of support for Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah, elimination of Iran's missile arsenal, and regime change. He said, "We have failed on all four accounts." This assessment is reported by TASS.

Iran's Increased Control Over the Strait of Hormuz — Mearsheimer argued that Iran now controls the Strait of Hormuz, having established a 'toll booth' that did not exist before the conflict began on February 28. This is a consequence of the operation that he described as making the situation worse for the United States.

War of Attrition and Nuclear Risk — The political scientist warned that the conflict has become a war of attrition that the US cannot win, and he raised the possibility that Israel might use nuclear weapons if it suspects Iran is pursuing them. "Their greatest fear is that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons," he said, adding that Israel's conventional forces have proven insufficient and that the US would not stop such a move.

US-Europe Relations Deteriorating — In response to a TASS question, Mearsheimer stated that the Iran war, combined with prior disputes over Greenland and Ukraine, "spells doom for the transatlantic relationship." He predicted that US-Europe relations, which he termed 'poisonous', would worsen.

Ceasefire Announced — President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire on April 7, under the condition that Iran agree to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's 10-point proposal was described by Trump as "a workable basis on which to negotiate." Tehran agreed to cease retaliatory strikes if it was no longer attacked. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif mediated and invited both parties to Islamabad for talks on April 10.

Casualties Reported — According to the Emergency Medical Services of Iran, cited by TASS, 3,375 people were killed in US-Israeli strikes during the 40 days of the war. This figure has not been independently verified.

Perspectives

US-Israeli Strategic Failure: Mearsheimer's comments, as reported, reflect a critical view of the operation's efficacy. He describes the attack as "a colossal blunder" that has strengthened Iran's position, particularly in regard to the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Resilience: The reporting suggests that Iran has withstood the military pressure and has achieved a bargaining chip in the strait, complicating US and Israeli objectives.

International Relations Impact: The conflict, according to Mearsheimer, has exacerbated tensions within NATO, with the US blaming European allies for not providing naval support to reopen the strait.

Future Scenarios: The possibility of Israeli nuclear use, as raised by Mearsheimer, underscores the high stakes of the conflict, though it remains a speculative prediction.

Conclusion

John Mearsheimer's assessments, as conveyed through multiple reports, paint a picture of a conflict that has not achieved its stated aims and may have created new strategic realities. The ceasefire, while announced, appears fragile, and the broader implications for US foreign policy and alliances are still unfolding.