Concerns of delay loom over KF-21 fighter jet program as production costs likely to rise

Lead

The South Korean KF-21 fighter jet program, a cornerstone of the country's defense ambitions, may face delays as costs for follow-on production are projected to rise sharply from original estimates, according to a document drafted by the state arms procurement agency. The projected cost increase comes despite the program's recent milestone of passing a full combat readiness evaluation, highlighting the tension between development progress and fiscal realities.

Coverage comparison

Reports from Yonhap News, South Korea's leading wire service, present a nuanced picture of the program. One article, published May 12, focuses on the cost concerns, detailing a projected 29.5 percent increase in Block-II production costs. Another report, from May 14, showcases a successful test flight and underscores the program's operational readiness and export potential. A third piece, from May 7, confirms the aircraft's full combat suitability evaluation, marking the completion of performance verification.

While the May 7 report strikes a positive tone, emphasizing development progress, the May 12 article adopts a cautionary stance, highlighting budget pressure and the potential for delays. The May 14 piece is optimistic, framing the program as a demonstration of South Korea's aerospace capabilities. All three reports draw on official sources, including the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) and military officials.

Key claims

The KF-21 fighter jet has passed a full combat readiness evaluation, according to DAPA, clearing all performance requirements for actual missions through various tests conducted over about three years. This evaluation marks the completion of the final phase of performance verification in the development process. The jet had previously passed a provisional combat readiness assessment in May 2023.

The project formally took off in December 2015, aiming to develop an advanced supersonic fighter to replace the aging fleet of F-4 and F-5 jets. The program, initially estimated at 8.8 trillion won (US$6.06 billion), has seen significant investment, with 8.81 trillion won spent so far on development.

DAPA plans to deliver a total of 120 KF-21 jets by 2032, with 40 initially produced aircraft focused on air-to-air capabilities to be delivered by 2028, followed by 80 additional jets with air-to-ground and air-to-ship capabilities. Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd. (KAI) is the manufacturer, and at least eight units are planned for delivery to the Air Force by the end of this year.

The warplane is designed to fly at a maximum speed of Mach 1.81 and has a range of 2,900 kilometers.

However, the Block-II production of the KF-21 Boramae fighters was projected to cost 18.44 trillion won (US$12.5 billion) as of March, an increase of 29.5 percent from the initial estimate of 14.24 trillion won made in August 2024. DAPA largely attributed the cost overruns to economic factors, such as inflation, a weak Korean currency and global supply chain disruptions. The Block-I production program has also experienced cost overruns, with spending rising to 8.38 trillion won from the initial estimate of 7.92 trillion won.

The budget for the follow-on production will be finalized before the end of the year following consultations with the Ministry of Planning and Budget.

South Korea's ambition to develop its own fighter jet dates back to 2001, when then President Kim Dae-jung declared such an initiative, although it barely made progress amid doubts over feasibility and budget issues. Seven feasibility studies were carried out before the project formally launched.

The development of the KF-21 means the country has established a foundation to export indigenous fighter jets, as well as weapons systems that will be integrated into the aircraft. Initial discussions have been under way over potential deals to export at least 200 units of the fighter jet to several countries, including the Philippines, Malaysia and Poland.

During a test flight demonstration on May 13, Lt. Col. Jeon Seung-hyun, commander of the 281st Test Flight Squadron, said: "The flight of the prototype was conducted to test the performance of the air-to-ground mode." He added, "Every prototype is monitored in real time from the mission control room. We can even hear the pilot's breathing and tell when they are struggling or if something might be wrong."