Concerns over integrity mount ahead of Israel's October election

Israelis will head to the polls on October 27 in what is shaping up to be a closely contested election, but the run-up has been marked by deepening worries about the integrity of the vote. Politicians, civil society groups and even President Isaac Herzog have warned of potential interference, violence, and other threats, as the country prepares for its first general election since the October 7, 2023 attack and the wars that followed.

A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that almost three-quarters of Jewish Israelis are concerned about the integrity of the 2026 election, while 43% said they were optimistic about the future of democratic rule in Israel. Another study published on August 5 by the same institute found that 70% of respondents believed there was a threat to the integrity of Israel's elections, compared with 25% in a similar poll before the November 2022 election. "The results of the survey reflect an enormous mistrust among citizens toward the authorities," Tamar Hermann, a senior researcher at the institute and one of the authors of the study, told Al-Monitor. Hermann noted that in a close race, small-scale manipulation could be decisive.

Warnings from the President and opposition figures

President Isaac Herzog has been vocal about the risks, warning in a televised speech in mid-July of both violence and potential interference in the election, following a meeting with the heads of the electoral commission and the Shin Bet internal security service. He pleaded with the public "not to cross red lines" during the campaign, saying: "I turn to elected representatives, activists and all candidates from all parties, and demand that you do not cross red lines. Do not turn rivals into enemies." Herzog also said in late July that the Shin Bet had warned him of "various threats to the integrity of the elections, both internal and external."

Opposition leader Yair Lapid and former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert have also raised concerns about the vote.

Accusations of incitement and police conduct

Warnings are multiplying that violence could break out between rival political camps, with powerful figures including top government ministers accused of incitement against opponents. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone on the offensive, warning that his opponents would align with lawmakers from Israel's Arab minority.

Ofer Cassif, a parliament member from the Arab-Jewish communist party Hadash, told Al Jazeera that violence has already become part of the Israeli political landscape, citing anti-government activists and judges being harassed by far-right pro-government militias. Cassif said members of Hadash were preparing for attempts to bar them from the election and warned of attempts to suppress voting in areas with large Palestinian citizen populations. He also questioned who would remove the government if it refused to leave office after an election loss.

Concerns have been raised about the role of the police, particularly under National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who has overseen the issuance of more than 200,000 civilian firearm licences since the October 7, 2023 attack. According to a June 2025 report by the Times of Israel, since Ben Gvir was appointed national security minister in December 2022, the police have taken a tougher stance toward protesters, with the exception of right-wing activists. Ilana Shpaizman, a researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, warned specifically against violence from the police targeted towards Arab citizens in order to decrease their turnout, and mentioned the possibility of a scenario resembling the storming of the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. Shpaizman also said that Netanyahu learned from former US President Donald Trump and is preparing the ground to say the elections were rigged.

Michal Beinisch, a co-founder of the Election Command Center, a civil society group set up to monitor misinformation and prepare volunteers to observe polling stations, pointed to the case of Mordechai David as an example of police tolerance. David, who harassed Arab Israeli journalist Lucy Aharish outside her home, has been questioned by police several times but released without charge, and was commended by several coalition members. Beinisch said the group was founded in expectation of "a stormy, crucial election campaign with attempts to disrupt the democratic process."

Institutional responses and new rules

The Central Elections Committee has tightened rules governing conduct during the campaign and on election day. On August 4, committee chairman Judge Noam Solberg published new instructions aimed at preventing political interference, including a prohibition on party representatives reporting the identities of voters at polling stations through special apps, ruling that the practice infringes on voters' right to privacy.

The committee has also faced criticism from within Netanyahu's Likud party over the appointment of Dean Livne as acting head of the Central Elections Committee, with MK Avichay Buaron calling him "clearly politically biased" and Amichai Chikli saying it casts "a heavy shadow" over the election's integrity. Additionally, the coalition has cut the election committee's budget by 50 million New Israeli Shekels (approximately $15 million). Accusations have also been levied at the office of Transportation Minister Miri Regev of limiting flights into Ben Gurion Airport before election day, potentially hindering left-leaning overseas voters.

Novel threats: AI and cyberattacks

Alongside familiar risks such as provoked clashes and increased police presence, a new set of threats has emerged, including AI-generated misinformation and cyberattacks. Israel has opted to maintain paper ballots instead of using a computerized voting system due to risks of AI manipulation, and legal requirements mandate labeling of AI-generated campaign content.

The Election Command Center, established nine months ago, has 300 volunteers constantly searching the web and 150 in its digital department. The group launched an app that has been downloaded more than 30,000 times, hoping to recruit 100,000 volunteers by October 27. Eyal Naveh, a member of the group, said there has been a clear decrease in defamation, fake news and hateful speech on the web.

A polarised atmosphere

A poll by Israel's Institute for National Security Studies found that the scenario seen as most threatening over the next five years was "violent conflict between societal groups", narrowly ahead of "Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon", with both cited by about 39% of respondents. Yuval Eylon, a senior INSS researcher, said that fear of political violence marks a new reality for Israel, and noted that external threats used to unify the country but no longer appear to hold true as the pre-election atmosphere grows increasingly polarised.

The offices of the government-critical Haaretz newspaper and Channel 12 News were vandalised in July, with the culprit leaving a note threatening next to aim a brick at journalists' heads. Therese Pearce Laanela of International IDEA noted the tension between whatever governing party is in power and a fair election. Ori Goldberg said that Israelis expect Netanyahu to do whatever it takes to stay in power, whatever the cost.

Netanyahu is on trial for corruption and seeking to defer an independent inquiry into the October 2023 incursions. International criticism of Israel's military actions in Gaza and settler violence across the occupied West Bank, as well as Israel's multi-front war, are expected to be hot topics in the election campaign.

The race so far

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot has emerged as a leading challenger with his Yashar party, competing closely with Netanyahu's Likud in recent polls. A public opinion survey published by Kan predicted that Likud and Yashar would each win 23 Knesset seats.