Coalition to link immigration limits to new builds as Taylor says ‘migration has run miles ahead of housing’

Coalition Unveils Migration Plan Tied to Housing Supply, Welfare Cuts

The Australian Coalition has announced a migration policy that would directly link the number of newcomers to the number of new homes built, a move it says is necessary to address housing affordability. Under the plan, net overseas migration would be capped at the equivalent of one person per new dwelling completed, with the annual ceiling determined by housing completion figures.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor, who is set to outline the policy in his budget reply speech, said the current approach has allowed migration to outpace housing. "Under Labor, migration has run miles ahead of housing and that puts pressure on rents, house prices and on every young Australian trying to get ahead," he said, according to a preview of the speech.

Policy Details and Targets

The Coalition's plan would require the housing minister to report annually on the number of new homes completed, and that figure would serve as a hard cap on net overseas migration. The opposition has not yet specified which visa categories would be cut, saying it would decide after taking office. However, a confidential policy roadmap reportedly indicates a target of reducing net overseas migration to between 150,000 and 200,000 per year.

Current data shows net overseas migration was 306,000 in 2024-25, while 174,752 homes were built in the same period, equating to about 1.7 migrants per new home. In 2023-24, the ratio was higher at 2.4 migrants per dwelling, with 429,000 net migration and 177,683 completions.

Welfare Restrictions for Non-Citizens

In a separate but related move, the Coalition has proposed restricting access to more than a dozen social services, including the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), parental leave, and carers allowance, to Australian citizens only. Permanent residents and some visa holders would lose eligibility, although existing recipients would be grandfathered.

Under the plan, the age pension and disability support pension would require a 10-year residency period, even for migrants who become citizens. Exemptions would apply to defence, intelligence, law enforcement, domestic violence, child protection, emergency assistance, and humanitarian cases. The Coalition says this would save "many billions" over the forward estimates, though detailed costings are expected closer to the election.

Reactions from Business and Universities

The business community has expressed reservations about the proposed cuts. Innes Willox, chief executive of the Australian Industry Group, said skilled migration is vital for filling gaps in the economy. "The focus needs to be on ensuring we are bringing the right skills to Australia when they are needed in a timely and efficient manner," he said. While open to debate on migration levels, he described a transparent and responsive skilled migration program as "sacrosanct."

The Property Council of Australia has also weighed in, emphasizing the need to address housing supply and the education of migrants. Universities, meanwhile, are bracing for significant reductions in foreign student numbers, which experts say would likely absorb the bulk of the cuts. Dr Liz Allen from the Australian National University noted that skilled visas would be difficult to reduce, making international students a likely target.

Economic and Political Context

The announcement comes as the federal government upgraded its net overseas migration forecasts by 55,000 over this year and the next. It now expects just under 1 million additional migrants over four years. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has acknowledged housing is "one of the defining challenges in our economy" but defended the government's approach, which includes tax reforms and housing initiatives.

The Coalition's plan also includes a $5 billion housing infrastructure fund and the abolition of several Labor housing programs. It aims to lift productivity by 0.5 to 0.7 per cent annually and improve housing affordability within two years.

Perspectives

Coalition: Angus Taylor argues that migration must be limited to available housing to ease pressure on rents and house prices, and that welfare should be reserved for citizens.

Business Groups: The Australian Industry Group and Property Council warn that cutting skilled migration could harm the economy and that the focus should be on bringing the right skills when needed.

Academics and Universities: Experts say the migration cap will likely force significant cuts to international student numbers, with potential flow-on effects on university funding and the broader economy.