Shipping Routes Shifting: Suez Canal Return and the Threat of a Bab el-Mandeb Blockade

Container shipping is undergoing a significant shift as major carriers begin to resume voyages through the Suez Canal, a route that was largely abandoned since late 2023. The move signals a potential easing of the disruptions that have reshaped global trade routes, though the threat of a renewed blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait casts a shadow over the industry.

Coverage Comparison

Reports from Africa News and TASS — English offer contrasting but complementary angles on the shipping situation. Africa News focuses on the return to normalcy, highlighting the decisions by major carriers to reroute services back through the Suez Canal. In contrast, TASS — English provides a more analytical perspective, centered on the potential for a new crisis: a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Yemen's Ansar Allah movement, which could deal a serious blow to container shipping. While Africa News attributes the resumption to deescalation in the Middle East, TASS frames its analysis around the possibility of US strikes on Iran and the resulting threats from the Houthis.

The two reports also differ in their focus areas. Africa News details the specific operational changes by A.P. Moller Maersk, while TASS includes expert commentary from Mikhail Margelov, a vice president of the Russian International Affairs Council, on the likely impacts of a blockade. Together, they provide a picture of both the immediate improvements and the potential risks that could reverse progress.

Key Claims

Suez Canal Resumption

According to Africa News, major shipping vessels are starting to return to the Suez Canal instead of taking the longer route around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. The diversion from the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait began in November 2023, when Yemen's Houthis launched attacks on Israel-linked vessels. In the following years, thousands of container ships took the longer route around the southern tip of Africa, adding almost 1,000 kilometers and up to two weeks to the journey. This detour sent the cost of freight soaring and pushed up shipping costs across the board.

Now, with the situation in the Middle East showing signs of deescalation, major carriers say some services will return to the Red Sea route. Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller Maersk said it will reroute the AE15 service — one of the services shared under its Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd — via the Suez Canal, dropping the Cape of Good Hope detour. The AE15 service connects Asia, the Mediterranean Sea, and Europe. According to a Hapag-Lloyd spokesperson, the adjustment is expected to cut the overall voyage duration by up to four weeks.

Maersk said the decision to resume Suez Canal transits came after "a comprehensive assessment of the security situation in the Red Sea region," adding that it marks "a step toward gradually returning to the Suez Canal route." Both companies have contingency plans in place that would allow for swift adjustments if the Red Sea security situation deteriorates. However, neither of them plans to change the rest of the Gemini network's services for now, and both said they will keep a close watch on developments in the Middle East.

Threat of a Bab el-Mandeb Blockade

TASS — English reports a contrasting development: a potential blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Yemen's rebel Ansar Allah movement (the Houthis) would deal a serious blow to the container shipping market via the Suez Canal. This claim was made by Mikhail Margelov, Vice President of the Russian International Affairs Council, in an interview with TASS. He added, however, that such a closure would not have a critical impact on oil supplies.

"The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would primarily impact not oil shipments, but the flow of cargo moving in both directions through the Suez Canal, non-oil freight in the first place. Saudi Arabia has virtually no major oil refining capacity on its Red Sea coast, and neither do Egypt or Sudan. Therefore, this poses a threat primarily to commercial shipping and represents a major blow to the container shipping market," Margelov said.

According to TASS, Mohammed al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of the Ansar Allah movement, threatened earlier to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to the resumption of US strikes on Iran. The report also notes that the United States resumed large-scale strikes against Iran overnight into July 8, accusing it of violating agreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Perspectives

Shipping Industry (Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd)

The companies see the resumption of Suez Canal transits as a positive step, citing security assessments and gradual return to normal operations. They remain cautious, with contingency plans in place, indicating a willingness to adapt if conditions change.

Russian Expert Commentary (Mikhail Margelov)

Margelov emphasizes the vulnerability of the container shipping market to a potential Houthi blockade, downplaying the impact on oil shipments due to the lack of refining capacity on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan.

Ansar Allah Movement (Mohammed al-Farah)

The Houthis, as reported by TASS, threaten to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to US strikes on Iran, indicating their readiness to escalate tensions.

Iranian Foreign Ministry

Tehran denies violating agreements with the US regarding the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that Washington is responsible for non-compliance, as reported by TASS.