Lead
The African Development Bank's (AfDB) top climate expert has warned that an impending "super" El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion of damage in affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, as reported by Africa News and the South China Morning Post.
Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview that the event could reduce the GDP of heavily impacted countries by 1 to 2 per cent on average, which equates to $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent.
Forecasters are warning that the naturally occurring El Niño weather pattern – which often drives severe droughts, flooding, and storms in Africa – could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue, according to both outlets.
Coverage comparison
Both Africa News and the South China Morning Post reported the core warning from Nyong, with the headline angle focusing on the negative economic impact of El Niño on African economies. Both outlets emphasized the potential damage to African economies and the trigger for mass migration, attributing the cause to El Niño weather patterns and Pacific Ocean warming trends.
Africa News included additional details about the impact on African farmers and fishing industries, reporting that the bank estimates African farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, amid high energy prices and fertilizer disruptions due to the war in the Middle East. The outlet also noted that the fishing industries could be hard hit due to rising sea temperatures and storms.
The South China Morning Post highlighted the potential effect on government finances and banking sectors, reporting that El Niño could undermine these if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay connected loans. It also mentioned the AfDB's forecast of 4.2 per cent economic growth in Africa this year, rising to 4.4 per cent in 2027, which may be affected by El Niño.
Both outlets reported that Nyong did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate, and warned that the impact was unlikely to be a one-off, with effects potentially lasting for years.
Key claims
- An impending "super" El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion of damage in affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, as reported by both Africa News and the South China Morning Post.
- El Niño could reduce the GDP of heavily impacted countries by 1 to 2 per cent on average, according to Anthony Nyong, as reported by both outlets.
- El Niño could undermine government finances and banking sectors if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay connected loans, a claim reported by the South China Morning Post.
- The AfDB's forecast of 4.2 per cent economic growth in Africa this year, rising to 4.4 per cent in 2027, may be affected by El Niño, a claim carried by the South China Morning Post.
- African farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year due to high energy prices and fertilizer disruptions, a claim reported by Africa News.
- The fishing industries could be hard hit due to rising sea temperatures and storms, as reported by Africa News.
- Countries such as Sudan and Nigeria could face particularly severe impacts from El Niño, though neither outlet provided a country-by-country breakdown, and this claim appears only in one of the outlets' coverage.