China's ability to hit Australia with missiles 'real and growing'

Overview

A new report from the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank, warns that China's military is developing a "real and growing" ability to strike the Australian mainland with missiles, and that Beijing can already threaten Australia's trade routes, subsea cables, and critical infrastructure. The analysis, released on June 14, 2026, and reported by multiple outlets including the ABC, Reuters, and the South China Morning Post, focuses on China's military capabilities rather than predicting the likelihood of conflict.

Coverage Comparison

The report has been covered by several international news organizations, each with a slightly different focus. The ABC (Australia's public broadcaster) emphasized the "dramatic" scale of China's military build-up and quoted one of the report's co-authors, Sam Roggeveen, who said Australia needs to "keep a laser-like focus on China's capabilities." Reuters, in a piece carried by the Jerusalem Post, highlighted that the most immediate threats to Australia will come through cyberattacks and the cutting of undersea communications cables, while also noting China's pursuit of basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018.

The South China Morning Post and The Hindu focused on the technical details, including the DF-27 intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers, and noted that Australia reshaped its military strategy three years ago in response to China's rapid navy build-up. The Hindu also carried China's official response, in which a foreign ministry spokesperson condemned the report as a "serious strategic misjudgement" and reiterated China's commitment to peaceful development.

Key Claims

• Direct missile strike capability: The report states that China is capable of a direct missile strike on Australia, with the threat growing as Beijing amasses long-range and hypersonic weapons and builds islands in the South China Sea. This claim is supported by all sources covering the report.

• Main threat vector: The main threat to Australia is from Chinese missiles fired from ships, submarines, and a new intermediate-range ballistic missile that could reach the continent from China. The DF-27 missile, which the U.S. military says has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers, is identified as a key system.

• Immediate threats: According to Reuters, the most immediate threats to Australia will come through cyberattacks and the cutting of undersea communications cables, rather than conventional missile strikes. This claim appears in the Reuters report but is not emphasized in other outlets' coverage.

• Long-term escalation: The threat to Australia would escalate "dramatically" if China secures a military base in the Pacific or develops a new long-range bomber or drone capable of reaching Australia. This claim, cited by both the ABC and Reuters, is based on the report's projections.

• China's response: China's foreign ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, said that strengthening its military is "beneficial to world peace" and that its military development is intended to safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests, not to target any specific country. This response was reported by The Hindu.

Perspectives

Australian Security Perspective

The report, authored by the Lowy Institute, is framed as a capabilities assessment, not a prediction of conflict. Co-author Sam Roggeveen told AFP that the report is "neither hawkish nor dovish, neither alarmist nor complacent," but stressed that the growth of the People's Liberation Army is "the most important thing to happen to Australian security since the collapse of the Soviet Union." The ABC noted that the report does not make predictions about the likelihood of conflict but emphasizes the need for Australia to monitor China's growing ability to project power.

Chinese Government Perspective

China has dismissed the report as a "serious strategic misjudgement," with spokesperson Lin Jian urging "relevant institutions" to stop "hyping up the so-called China threat." He reiterated that China's military development is defensive in nature and aimed at preserving world peace. This perspective, reported by The Hindu, highlights the diplomatic tension between the two countries, which have seen relations improve since 2022 after a period of sanctions and friction.

Regional Balance of Power

Reuters and the Jerusalem Post emphasized that China's military build-up is reshaping the balance of power in ways that affect Australian security "regardless of China's ability to strike Australian territory." This includes China's capabilities to disrupt maritime trade through chokepoints in the Indonesian archipelago and its active pursuit of basing arrangements in Pacific Island nations since at least 2018, which could bring central Australia within bomber range.

Temporal Context

Australia's military strategy was reshaped three years ago, in 2023, in response to China's rapid navy build-up and rising friction between Beijing and Washington, focusing on deterring an adversary from its northern approaches. The report comes at a time when China is Australia's largest trading partner, accounting for almost a third of Australian exports, and diplomatic relations have recently improved under the Labor government.